AVIC takes aim at the overseas market

The Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder is one of the cornerstones of Pakistan's air force. CUI XINYU/XINHUA

Bright prospects

Wang Ya'nan, deputy editor-in-chief of Aerospace Knowledge, said potential clients for the J-31 would be the traditional buyers of Chinese aircraft, such as Pakistan and Venezuela.

Several nations in the Middle East are also seen as potential purchasers, because the jet will have been tested rigorously in China's arid, sandy northwestern regions by the time it's ready to come into service, Wang said, adding that AVIC would have little difficulty upgrading the aircraft's sandproofing capabilities.

"I don't think AVIC will set a very high price for the J-31, because the export of the jet would help the company seize a considerable share of the market, and establish a reputation for high-end military aircraft," Wang said. "Moreover, orders from other nations would help to maintain the production line."

Wang's opinion was echoed outside China by Robert Farley, assistant professor at the Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce at the University of Kentucky. He told The New York Times: "Pakistan, of course, would be a huge buyer. Several Latin American countries are recapitalizing their air forces. In the Middle East, there's a lot of dissatisfaction with the US and US equipment. A cheaper Chinese stealth fighter could do well."

Wang said the aircraft's prospects are bright, but AVIC must do one thing before it can sign any contracts－it must persuade the People's Liberation Army air force to accept the J-31, otherwise foreign militaries will lack confidence in it.

"The J-31 is undoubtedly a project on AVIC's own account, so the PLA has apparently not made a decision about procuring it. I think an indigenous, reliable engine would be the key to the PLA's acceptance," he said, adding that AVIC is developing an advanced turbofan engine that is expected to be production-ready within five years at most.

Accessible option

Sun, the chief designer, told Xinhua News Agency that he hoped the PLA air force will pair the plane with other advanced fighter jets, and that the upgraded J-31 will become China's next-generation aircraft-carrier-borne fighter jet.

Xu Yongling, a military aviation expert and former test pilot, said advanced combat aircraft made by Western countries are usually subject to strict technological and export controls, and as a result, they are very expensive. That makes Chinese-made jets, which will have superior capabilities and cost less, a good choice for developing nations.

Although some observers have said the jet's design means it will be of limited use to the Chinese military, Cao Weidong, a researcher at the PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute, said the aircraft could still stand a chance of serving as a carrier-borne fighter if the wings, landing gear, and engines were upgraded.

"Although the J-31 has a short flight range, its cutting-edge radar, avionics, and stealth technology will make it a suitable companion for the J-15. It would do a good job of staging first strikes."

Yin Zhuo, a senior expert with the PLA navy, said that buying armaments from China offers developing nations an added bonus－a willingness to help them build their own defense industries.

"China doesn't intend to just earn money from developing countries. We have sold them weapons and equipment, and taught them how to maintain those arms, and if they had the necessary capability, we were also willing to sell them an entire manufacturing facility."

He said China has helped nations such as Pakistan and Indonesia to assemble Chinese weapons, which has enabled them to gradually acquire the ability to develop and produce their own armaments, and eventually establish relatively independent defense industries.

Xu Bangnian, a professor at the PLA Air Force Command Institute, said: "Even if the PLA air force and navy currently don't need the J-31, the plane will still be very popular in the international military aircraft market because it's really the only choice for affordable stealth aircraft."