State of the economy in 2013

Gary Rieschel

Founder, Qiming Venture Partners

GDP growth: 7 percent

Inflation: 4 percent

Outlook:

Focus should be less on the rate of GDP growth and more on the value of business opportunities.

US economy could move into recession again, if first quarter growth is flat.

Shanghai Composite Index could hit 3000.

Steve Brice

Chief investment strategist, Standard Chartered Bank

GDP growth: 7.7 to 7.8 percent

Inflation: 4 to 5 percent

Outlook:

Chinese stock market is undervalued and could see rapid gains.

Europe could see growth in the second half.

Chinese residential property market could see robust growth.

Goolam Ballim

Group chief economist, Standard Bank

GDP growth: 7.5 percent

Inflation: 4 percent

Outlook:

No end to financial crisis until the end of the decade when the new normal will be a shift of economic power to the East as well as Africa.

China is now front and center for Africa's economic fortunes.

Global growth needs to become stable, even if weak, before recovery can begin.

George Magnus

Senior economic adviser, UBS

GDP growth: 7.5 to 8 percent

Inflation: 4 percent

Outlook:

China still risks investment bust and lower growth in the medium term because of difficulties in weaning itself on an infrastructure-led growth model.

Western economies can expect Japan-like long-term levels of growth and near-zero interest rates set to remain.

China has endemic inflation problem with wages rising faster than money.

Junheng Li

Founder, J.L. Warren Capital

GDP growth: 6 to 7 percent

Inflation: below 2 percent

Outlook:

Further bleak news for Shanghai Composite Index, which will be flat in 2013 and could see dramatic falls in 2014.

Healthcare and education stocks could be strong sectors for investment.

China GDP could fall below 7 percent but the government should avoid fiscal stimulus.

Miranda Carr

Head of China research, NSBO

GDP growth: 7.5 to 8 percent

Inflation: 3 percent

Outlook:

China growth should improve on weak 2012 GDP figures.

Real estate already showing signs of a rebound from April 2012 low.

A lot of domestic demand will still be driven by urbanization.

Mark Williams

Chief Asia economist, Capital Economics

GDP growth: 8 percent

Inflation: 3 percent

Outlook:

China growth will revive in 2013 but won't last unless there is further fiscal stimulus.

Eurozone area will contract by 2.5 percent and show signs of cracking apart. Options for kicking the can down the road running out.

US will gradually pull itself out of the mire during 2013.

China Daily

(China Daily 01/04/2013 page1)