Greater Bay Area to be largest bay economy by 2020

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area expects to be the largest economy among global bay areas by 2020, as Hong Kong is expected to be more attractive to firms and capital from the Chinese mainland will be promoted, according to a report from real estate consulting firm CBRE.

CBRE said the Greater Bay Area has three growth poles, including Shenzhen, Guangzhou and Hong Kong, with advantages in scientific innovation, trade, logistics, finance and services, and it also covers cities with strong manufacturing power in the Pearl River Delta.

Last year, the economic aggregate of the Greater bay Area reached 11.7 trillion yuan ($1.83 trillion).

The Greater Bay Area is accelerating its integration. As the development plan is implemented, population inflow will increase, technology and industry will be upgraded and large-scale infrastructure investment will create new investment opportunities in real estate in the area.

There is still a gap between the Greater Bay Area and other international bay areas in real estate development, said Li Ling, a managing director of investment and capital market sector at CBRE China.

Last year, the space of high-quality office buildings at the Greater Bay Area was 32 million square meters, 40 and 55 percent lower than the New York Bay Area and the Tokyo Bay Area respectively.

As the economy growth and structure transformation continues in the Greater Bay Area, demand for office buildings will surge, Li said.

High-end business will continue to gather in core cities that will boost office building investment in Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hong Kong, CBRE's report said.

At present, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have entered into a second round of construction for office areas. Pazhou, International Finance Town and the Qianhai area of Shenzhen is attracting tenants and investors.

Firms from the Chinese mainland desire spaces in Hong Kong's central districts, CBRE said. Moreover, the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao Bridge and Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong express rail link will be opened, boosting cities' economy on the west bank of the Pearl River, such as Zhuhai, Jiangmen, and Guangzhou's sub-center Nansha.

Zhongshan's Cuiheng new area, Zhuhai's Hongwan port and Jiangmen's Heshan are expected to be new logistics hubs.

The report also said population un-bounded flows in the area will facilitate industrial property and shopping mall investment opportunities.

As the high-speed train and inter-city rail start to run, more "one-hour working-living cycles" for commuters, such as Guangzhou-Foshan and Shenzhen-Dongguan, will be formed in the Greater Bay Area.

Urban integration will speed up manufacturing population outflows to second-tier cities, including Dongguan, Foshan, Huizhou and Zhongshan. This will create opportunities for these cities' properties such as industrial and science parks, homes and commercial facilities.