Coming Sino-US trade talks muster cautious optimism

Analysts in Washington and beyond expressed cautious optimism about a fresh round of trade talks between China and the United States at the vice-ministerial level.

The new trade discussions, at the US's invitation, have been set for late August. They are to be led by Vice-Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen and by the US Treasury's Undersecretary for International Affairs David Malpass.

The two sides haven't talked since early June.

"I see it as a potentially hopeful sign because they are at least showing a willingness to talk again," said Jon Taylor, a professor of political science of the University of St. Thomas in Houston. Taylor said he would "urge caution regarding expectations", given the environment created by the administration of US President Donald Trump.

"The best that we can hope for is that these lower-level talks will be successful in getting higher-level officials to the table for substantive policy talks, thereby setting the stage for an eventual resolution to this counterproductive trade war," he said.

Simon Lester, associate director of the Cato Institute's Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, said he had low expectations, partly due to the agency and rank of the US host official. "It may just be that two months have gone by, and they wanted to check in," Lester said.

But Marc Busch, a professor of international business diplomacy at Georgetown University, said timing is important regardless of the level. "Both sides have chosen this moment to resume negotiations because both sides realize how much there is at stake and how much they can both lose if things aren't resolved shortly," Busch said.

Trade specialists contacted by China Daily on Thursday said the negotiations' pace seemed tied to US midterm elections, so a near-term breakthrough seems unlikely.

Douglas H. Paal, vice-president of the Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the new talks will be difficult, as the two sides have many disparities to resolve. "Having working-level talks on these specific issues is not a bad idea, however, if only to start identifying points of agreement that might be reached considerably later," Paal said.

He said a breakthrough seems unlikely before the midterms in November. Both sides need time at least to measure the effects of trade actions so far, Paal said.

Gary Hufbauer, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington, said Trump is happy to engage in fresh negotiations. "Trump has discovered the adverse financial impact of his sanctions on Turkey," he said.

"Putting 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China would have a far larger adverse impact."

He remained skeptical of a breakthrough, but the talks could continue into December at least. "For the next few months, I think we will see a defusing of the trade dispute," Hufbauer said.

Ying Wang contributed to this story.