Nation to step closer to prosperity goal

George Magnus, an associate of the University of Oxford China Centre, said the "extreme longevity" of this upward swing in the business cycle is not sufficient in itself to predict an imminent recession, but it is becoming harder to sustain.

"It is not just the US. Most of the Western world touched bottom in 2009. This long recovery needs continuous energizing to sustain it. It is like riding your bike into a wind uphill－you need to put in that extra effort in order not to stall. You don't need much of a shock to knock you off balance," he said.

One of the risks that could affect the global economy is increasing protectionism and, in particular, the trade dispute between the US and China.

There were signs of a more constructive relationship between the two countries as last year drew to a close.

President Xi Jinping and Trump discussed trade in a telephone conversation on Dec 29.

Both stressed the progress made in the trade talks while voicing hope for further results that can bring benefits to both sides and the world.

Tse, at Gao Feng Advisory, is optimistic that the dispute will be resolved early this year.

"There is something like a 50 percent possibility that it will be pretty well handled and the crux of the issue will be largely solved. Some of the underlying issues between China and the US will continue to be around for some time," he said.

Zeng Kanghua, a public finance professor with the Central University of Finance and Economics in Beijing, said China's economy would remain "resilient" even without a resolution to the trade dispute.

"The economy will still be able to expand at a reasonable rate above 6 percent, given that there are a number of strategic development opportunities. With a resolution, the growth outlook will be better and likely to be in line with last year's," he said.

The other risk this year stems from Brexit and the possibility of the UK leaving the EU without a negotiated deal on March 29, the date on which it is due to exit.

Most commentators believe that while this could disrupt the UK economy and UK-EU trade, it is unlikely to destabilize the global economy.

Magnus, author of Red Flags, a new book about the Chinese economy, said: "The good news is that we don't have to wait much longer now for some kind of resolution. The clock is ticking. Proper grown-up decisions will become unavoidable in the next few weeks."

If there is a global recession this year, few observers expect it to be anything like the same scale as the global financial crisis a decade ago.

Jing Ulrich, managing director and vice-chairman of JPMorgan Chase's Asia Pacific operations, said banks have learned their lesson from the devastation of 10 years ago.

She said global banks have never been better positioned from a solvency and liquidity perspective going into the next potential recession, and the probability of a systemically important bank failing has declined.

Ulrich said the Financial Stability Board, set up at the G20 summit in London in 2009 in the aftermath of the previous crisis to monitor the global financial system, has been particularly effective.

"All of these new frameworks and institutions are here to stay, and will continue to be the guardians of global economic stability," she said.

For many developing countries in particular, a major growth engine will continue to be China's Belt and Road Initiative, which according to JPMorgan Chase has the potential to boost global trade by $2.5 trillion over the longer term.

Jiang Hao, a partner at management consultancy Roland Berger in Shanghai, said the initiative can relieve infrastructure bottlenecks that are barriers to economic development in many countries.

"The BRI has a very positive impact on the economic development of those developing countries, which in turn will contribute to global economic growth and stability," he said.

"It encourages more countries to participate in the global supply chain and improve each nation's domestic consumption, which allows all those countries to contribute to the prosperity of the global economy."

David Morris, chair of the United Nations Asia Pacific Business Forum, said 2019 could be the year to build on the initiative's success.

"It has been widely welcomed as a platform for building new capabilities across the developing world for trade. Lessons are being learned from the first five years and there are good opportunities for more multistakeholder partnerships to reduce investment risks, with greater transparency and openness to build trust," he said.