Middle East players facing new test

US-Saudi relations

The fallout is also testing the alliance between Washington and Riyadh.

Although US President Donald Trump has asserted the petro-state's importance as a lucrative buyer of US arms and a bulwark against their common foe Iran, US lawmakers appear in no mood to give a free pass over the murder.

In an unusual pushback against the government, the GOP-controlled US Senate on Dec 13 voted to recommend ending US military assistance to the Saudi-led operation in Yemen, and accused Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of involvement in the death of Khashoggi.

The resolutions cannot be debated in the House of Representatives before January, and would likely be vetoed in any case by Trump. But the Senate vote has sent a strong message to the White House over anger on both sides of the aisle toward Riyadh.

Saudi Arabia rejected the Senate's move, calling it an "interference" in the kingdom.

"The killing has sparked multiple battles that are likely to shape relationships ranging from that between the US and Saudi Arabia to those between Trump, his Republican Party, the US Congress and the country's intelligence community," said James Dorsey, a fellow at Singapore's S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies. "The fallout of the killing could also shape Trump's ability to pursue his policy goals in the Middle East."

Kristian Ulrichsen, a fellow at Rice University's Baker Institute in the US, said: "It looks set to really impact US-Saudi ties very negatively in 2019, regardless of what the Trump administration thinks it can do to stop or prevent it."

"Winners" over case

However, Wang said that, to some extent, the US, Saudi Arabia and Turkey can be all regarded as "winners" over the case, considering their core interests remain unharmed.

"Ankara has gained a moral image and practical interests, while Washington has maintained relations with Riyadh which successfully limited political turmoil to both the government and royal family over the incident. It is hard to say which side was really severely damaged," he said.

As the current confrontation in the Middle East is caused by the relative change of hard powers of each player, and the incident has not been translated into political turmoil in Saudi Arabia, he predicted, its impact will be limited in 2019.

Zou Zhiqiang, a researcher of Middle East studies at Shanghai International Studies University, echoed that, saying the influence of the incident cannot be overestimated.

"No matter Turkey, Saudi Arabia or the US, what they care about most is their practical interests, not the truth of the murder. The benefits Turkey has gained through the case will be limited as long as there is no fundamental change in camps based on national interests in the Middle East.

"As long as Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states stay in the US alliance system, the US will not change its Middle East strategy and the goal of jointly deterring Iran is unchanged, the rivalry between both camps will continue, and regional hot spot issues will not disappear," he said.

AFP and AP contributed to this article.