Adequate attention should be paid to the declining number of births

ON JAN 21, the National Bureau of Statistics released official data that show China had 15.23 million newborns in 2018, about 2 million fewer than that of 2017. Beijing Youth Daily comments:

China implemented a new family planning policy in 2016 allowing all couples to have two children. However, there were 17.23 million newborns in 2017, 630,000 fewer than that of 2016; and the number of newborns was down by a further 2 million last year.

The drop in the number of newborns has aroused wide public concern. Related departments have responded by saying that the population growth of China is still healthy. They also dispelled certain rumors that China faced "population problems" or "negative population growth".

Their explanation comes in time. However, the population growth is still much lower than the estimate of the then National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2015, which predicted that the annual number of newborns might exceed 20 million after 2016. In other words, certain officials have underestimated the demographic challenge China faces.

China might not face a serious population problem yet, but it is necessary to keep in mind the possibility of challenges in the future. According to a report of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, affiliated to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the population of China might peak in 2029 and start dropping the year after. That's in accordance with a 2016 report of the State Council, and that should send an alert to scholars and decision-makers alike.

Facing this potential challenge, the related departments, such as those in charge of family planning, health, social security as well as housing and income should be prepared to adjust their policies.