Situation on peninsula not likely to worsen in near term

Editor's note: The Democratic People's Republic of Korea pulled its staff out of the inter-Korean liaison office in Kaesong on Friday, one day after the US Treasury Department announced additional sanctions on the country which were abruptly scrapped by US President Donald Trump. Although some DPRK staff returned to the liaison office on Monday to work with their Republic of Korea counterparts, the new twists and turns indicate the inter-Korean relations depend on the development of DPRK-US ties. In such circumstances, what does the future hold for the Korean Peninsula? Two experts share their views on the issue with China Daily's Liu Jianna. Excerpts follow:

US and DPRK moves to sound each other out

That Trump reversed the new sanctions on the DPRK suggests he doesn't want to further provoke the DPRK, as he has high expectations from his talks with DPRK top leader Kim Jong-un. Perhaps Trump's move was influenced by a strongly worded statement from DPRK Vice-Foreign Minister Choe Son-hui. Earlier this month, Choe threatened to suspend nuclear talks with the US because of what she said was the gangster-like stand of the US.

Also, the mixed signals from the US side on the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue reveal the differences within the Trump administration on the DPRK.

After Trump's prompt move, the ball is now in the DPRK's court. If the DPRK decides to act tough, the situation may spiral out of control. But the fact that four or five DPRK officials returned to the liaison office on Monday, according to the ROK's Unification Ministry, suggests Pyongyang may not up the ante.

The ROK is in a rather awkward position, for despite its limited capacities it wants to play the roles of both the mediator and propeller in the denuclearization process. In fact, the ROK set the peace process rolling when its President Moon Jae-in held a summit with Kim in April last year, which in turn led to the opening of the liaison office in Kaesong in September.

But the fact that several DPRK state news outlets, including the Uriminzokkiri website, have questioned the ROK's moves and policies shows Pyongyang is not happy with Seoul.

As Kim becomes more experienced in diplomatic exchanges and confident of holding one-on-one talks with world leaders, he aims to mobilize external forces to resist the US' pressure on its economy, politics and diplomacy. And his upcoming visit to Russia may further serve this purpose, especially because Moscow hopes to play a bigger role in East Asian affairs.

In the near term, the situation on the Korean Peninsula may not deteriorate drastically because, for now, it seems neither Washington nor Pyongyang will take any aggressive actions. As for the moves and counter-moves the US and DPRK have made, they can be seen as efforts to sound each other out. In the long run, whether the peninsula is denuclearized would depend on the overall situation in East Asia.

Shen Haitao, a professor at Northeast Asian Studies College, Jilin University

US hardliners' moves to blame for tensions

The US has deployed more reconnaissance aircraft around the Korean Peninsula recently perhaps in a bid to bring the DPRK back to the negotiation table.

US-DPRK relations have been affected also because some hard-core anti-DPRK officials such as National Security Adviser John Bolton dominate the US administration after Trump dismissed former US secretary of state Rex W. Tillerson.

Apart from hitting back at the US' new sanctions, the move of pulling officials out of the Kaesong liaison office was also aimed at putting more pressure on Seoul to provide more aid. Despite all this, in the short term, the situation on the peninsula may remain relatively stable. In the long run, whether Pyongyang would accept Washington's "verifiable" and "irreversible" denuclearization process and whether the US would fulfill its promise of lifting all sanctions against the DPRK will determine the peninsula's future.

But one thing is for sure, the high-voltage tensions seen in 2017, when it seemed a conflict could break out any moment, would not appear again, at least until Trump, who is supposed to like Kim according to White House press secretary, is in office.

Hu Mingyuan, a research fellow at the Center for Northeast Asian Studies, Jilin Academy of Social Sciences

The views don't necessarily represent those of China Daily.