As revenue slows, Uber plans IPO

An initial public offering is a bet on future growth, but Uber's planned deal comes with slowing revenues, huge losses and the possibility that unionization of its drivers could kill the company's business model.

Nevertheless, the ride-hailing company's IPO is expected to do well in early trading on the New York Stock Exchange. No date has been set, but the shares are expected to begin trading next month.

"Caution must prevail," said David Menlow, president of IPO Financial Network. "Anyone buying this stock should not think about putting it away for retirement."

Uber Technologies plans to offer 180 million shares at $44 to $50 each. The company could raise about $8.4 billion and plans to use net proceeds as working capital. If successful, Uber will be the largest IPO since Alibaba Group Holding launched in 2014.

Uber's financials raise doubts about future profitability. After strong revenue growth — from $495 million in 2014 to $11.27 billion in 2018 — Uber reported revenue of $2.31 billion in the fourth quarter and showed little change over the prior six months. Meanwhile, the company's deficit since founding reached $7.9 billion.

Unionization of Uber's drivers is a major threat facing the company. Uber considers its drivers to be independent contractors. But court challenges and new regulations could increase costs by making the drivers company employees. Uber noted in its regulatory filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission that it agreed last month to pay $20 million to drivers in California and Massachusetts.

Uber is a worldwide company also active in food home delivery and trucking. There are low barriers to entry in both fields, increasing competition and making it difficult for Uber to earn a profit. In meal delivery, Uber competes with GrubHub, DoorDash, Deliveroo, Swiggy, Delivery Hero, Just Eat, Takeaway. com and Amazon. The freight business competes with a range of global and North American companies, including DHL, Next Trucking and Convoy.

There is little to distinguish one company from another, forcing Uber to spend heavily to build its brand. In its registration statement filing, Uber warns, "We anticipate that we will continue to incur losses in the near term as a result of expected substantial increases in our operating expenses."

Unlike Lyft, which listed on Nasdaq last month, Uber's management won't maintain control of the company through supervoting shares not offered to the public in the IPO. In its securities commission registration statement, the company noted: "We do the right thing. Period."

Uber said it plans a gradual rollout of self-driving cars and noted its drivers will "remain a critical and differentiating advantage for us".