CEO survey shows greatest fear for 2020 is a recession

A worldwide survey of chief executives by The Conference Board said a recession in 2020 is their greatest fear — the second year in a row business leaders listed an economic slowdown as their biggest concern.

Recession fears come amid continued uncertainty about global trade, tightening labor markets, rising costs and global political instability, the survey of some 750 CEOs found.

"Just two years ago, global recession was barely on the minds of CEOs in our survey," said the New York-based Conference Board.

Recession risk was listed at the top concern in the United States, China and Europe. In Japan, fear of a recession ranked second behind a tight labor market. In Latin America, recession jitters ranked behind uncertainty about global trade.

The International Monetary Fund said there have been four global recessions since the end of World War II: 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. The IMF expects the US economy to grow at a 1.9 percent annual rate in 2020, while worldwide growth hits 3.5 percent.

"The ongoing concerns about recession risk among business leaders reflect the slowing economy of the past year and the uncertainties about the outcome of trade disputes," Bart van Ark, The Conference Board's chief economist, said in a statement.

"However, given a slightly better outlook for the global economy and an easing of trade tensions, we anticipate that a drumbeat of negative sentiment, which can become a self-fulfilling prophecy, can be avoided and that we will see more confidence about business prospects in 2020."

Trade jitters between the US and China appear to have moderated with a tentative agreement on the first stage of what both sides hope will be a comprehensive deal. But China also listed uncertainty about global trade as a major concern. US CEOs listed it as their fourth-strongest concern, behind recession, intense competition and a tight labor market.

Last year, the temporary inversion of the bond yield curve in the US stoked fears of a recession. When the short-term yield on bonds in higher than 10-year notes, it often signals a recession because investors question prospects for long-term growth. But the strong US job market and consumer spending allayed recession fears.

A strong economy increases the competition to find and retain workers. This translates into increased pay — and new headaches for CEOs.

"Regardless of a company's location, size or industry sector, finding and keeping talent is the top internal stressor for CEOs in 2020," said The Conference Board, a non-partisan research organization composed of about 1,200 companies in 60 nations.

"Demand for highly talented employees now exceeds supply in most mature economies and as a result, job openings are more difficult to fill while in some regions labor costs are accelerating."

The current US economic boom began in June 2009, as the economy emerged from the financial crisis. It is now the longest cycle in US history, breaking the run of 120 months of economic growth from March 1991 to March 2001, according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

In 2019, US GDP growth slipped to 2.3 percent from 3 percent in 2018 amid a continuing trade dispute with China, but prospects of a deal are expected to ease recession fears in 2020 and boost domestic growth to 2.5 percent, the Conference Board said.

Despite slower growth, the US stock market ended 2019 near record highs.

The US gross domestic product, the total value of goods and services produced in a year, grew to an estimated $21.25 trillion in 2019, up from $20.49 trillion in 2018, according to government figures.

In a research note issued Dec 27 to investors, investment bank Goldman Sachs said it pegs the risk of a US recession this year at less than 20 percent.

"We continue to see lower recession risk than most, largely because neither of the two classic late-cycle risks — inflationary overheating and financial imbalances — look threatening. Despite the record age of the expansion the private sector continues to run a healthy financial surplus," Goldman Sachs said.

Fears of a recession in 2020 may simply reflect an instinctive sense that the long economic expansion must surely be almost up. If so, recession fears are not "unreasonable", but current economic indicators make a downturn this year unlikely, the investment bank said.

Goldman Sachs said it expects the US-China trade dispute to ease as evidenced by initial steps to reach a comprehensive deal.

"We believe that tariffs have peaked," Goldman Sachs said. "With Phase One of the negotiations apparently complete, we do not expect new tariffs on imports from China (in 2020). While minor new tariffs are possible, the risks that new tariffs would pose to financial markets and the economy will likely discourage the White House from raising tariff rates marginally in the run-up to the 2020 election."

The US Federal Reserve bank cut interest rates by a quarter-point three separate times in 2019 to boost the economy, but further cuts this year are unlikely.