Coronavirus downturn still too early to call: Expert

A senior medical expert said on Tuesday there is not enough evidence to predict the peak or turning point of the Wuhan coronavirus epidemic, despite the growth rate of new suspected cases decreasing recently.

Wang Chen, the president of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, said the current situation is still serious and unclear, and "should never be underestimated".

"We don't have the evidence to predict when the epidemic will reach its peak or turning point," he told Xinhua News Agency. The country has implemented many decisive and smart measures, such as prolonging the holiday and setting up temporary hospitals, and the key is to carry them out effectively, he added.

The National Health Commission said around 3,971 new suspected cases were reported on Tuesday, making it the first time since Jan 29 that number dipped below 4,000 people. There were a total of 23,260 suspected cases on the Chinese mainland as of Tuesday at midnight.

On Monday, the number of new suspected cases was 5,072 — 65 less than the day prior — thus the growth rate of suspected cases has slowed for two consecutive days.

"The most urgent task at hand is to stop the spread of the virus," Wang said. "Right now viral transmission between family members is particularly severe. If many patients with mild symptoms are staying at home or moving around in their community, they will be the main source of the infection. Without effective treatment, these patients will get into trouble and even life threatening situations."

"We may have to take some powerful and even relatively extreme professional measures to intervene," he added. "If not, the situation can worsen. Swiftly identify and gather milder patients into a designated quarantine area where they can be taken care of by medical professionals. This is of utmost importance."

To serve this end, since Monday the city of Wuhan, Hubei province, began turning warehouses, sports and convention centers, and other large public areas into temporary hospitals named "Ark Hospitals". Right now three such hospitals have been established, providing sick beds for 4,300 patients with mild symptoms, Wang said.

"These large-scale 'Ark Hospitals' are not field hospitals during wartime or earthquake rescue missions," he said. "It is something we have never done and a major achievement in our nation's public health and medical development."

These centers and public spaces can be modified to take patients within 24 hours, and they can be easily returned to their former purposes at little cost, he said. Moreover, because patients admitted are only mildly ill, medical staff can quickly perform diagnoses and provide necessary treatment.

However, these hospitals will require meticulous management and logistical support, Wang said. "Protective suits and medical masks are still the most-needed medical supply."