Quarantine rated as effective measure

The unprecedented exercise of a full quarantine on Wuhan, the epicenter of the new deadly coronavirus outbreak, reflects China's dedication as a responsible great power, said a report published by the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies on Jan 31.

On Jan 23, China shut down transit in and out of Wuhan, a major transportation hub with a population of 11 million.

Quarantine, the report said, is a traditional and yet the most effective measure to contain a deadly epidemic, although it may bring unforeseen risks and consequences.

Because there is no specific cure or vaccine against some infections caused by viruses, including 2019-nCoV, standard public health emergency measures usually prove most efficient, including isolating the sources of infection, cutting off or interrupting transmission routes, and special care for the most susceptible people.

Since the quarantine began, the number of confirmed cases in all regions has grown at a much lower speed than that in Hubei province, with Wuhan being the only city with concentrated infections.

Of all the confirmed cases outside Hubei province, the majority have either lived in or traveled to Wuhan or other areas of Hubei recently. The rest have been in close contact with the above-mentioned patients, the report said.

So far, there has been no new epicenter of outbreak, said the report co-authored by seven scholars from the SIIS.

The authors include SIIS president Chen Dongxiao and Zhang Haibing, director of Institute of Global Governance of SIIS.

Based on these facts, the experts reached the conclusion that strict control over population outflows from Hubei province is an effective way to contain the spread of the deadly virus.

High-level emergency alerts have been activated across China and vigorous public health measures taken to identify, diagnose, and isolate infections or suspected cases at the earliest.

At the same time, the weeklong Lunar New Year holiday, which originally started on Jan 24, was extended to keep the nationwide migration of population at the minimum level.

Travelers from Wuhan and other epidemic areas have been advised to report their travel records and to self-quarantine for two weeks to prevent community transmission.

Highly connected global transport networks may enable contagious pathogens to spread from backwater villages in unknown corners of the world to major cities on six continents in less than 36 hours and trigger outbreaks or cause epidemics, the report said.

As of January 30, more than a month after the first confirmed case was reported in Wuhan and eight days after the Wuhan lockdown, 18 countries reported 98 cases of infection altogether, according to the World Health Organization.

"Had the Chinese government not taken determined efforts to quarantine the places with concentrated confirmed cases, the deadly virus may have spread all over the world and generated devastating impact on the global economic and public health systems," the report said.

In addition to a full lockdown on Wuhan, the Chinese government has also taken strong control and preventive measures in such metropolitan areas as Beijing and Shanghai as well as other populous regions in the country.

Zhong Nanshan, a renowned scientist at China's National Health Commission, told the Xinhua News Agency on Sunday that the outbreak "will not increase at a large scale".

"I believe it should reach a peak in a week or around 10 days," Zhong said.

Prolonging the Spring Festival holiday, controlling traffic, temperature checks and education as well as other government measures have effectively cut off the source of infection and greatly reduced the spread of the virus, he said, adding there are many challenges in the current effort.

Zhong played a major role in overcoming China's 2002-03 outbreak of SARS, a coronavirus from the same family as the current pathogen.

In an interview with People's Daily, Zeng Guang, chief epidemiologist at the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, also said control measures for the novel coronavirus will start to show clear results around Feb 8 as the latent phase of the disease will pass.

Experts said previously the latent phase of the disease falls within 14 days.

Li Lanjuan, a renowned Chinese epidemiologist, said the nation is currently experiencing a peak period of confirmed cases.

With prevention and control measures in place, the number of future infections will be significantly reduced, Li added.

In its latest situation report on the new coronavirus issued on Wednesday, the World Health Organization said the international community has launched a $675 million preparedness and response plan covering the months of February through to April to fight further spread of the coronavirus and protect states with weaker health systems.

Xinhua contributed to the story.