Is China approaching a coronavirus crossroads?

There are now over 40,200 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus worldwide. And yet, there is something else going on behind the reported figures, something that may allow a sense of cautious optimism.

Toward potential crossroads

Despite international concern and sensational headlines, the number of confirmed cases outside China has been relatively low, less than 400. So far there have been only two deaths outside the Chinese maniland; one in Hong Kong and another in the Philippines. Both patients had traveled to or had a connection with Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak.

While these numbers are likely to increase in the near future, the low starting point suggests China’s costly and severe measures may have saved many lives inside and outside China.

Moreover, the pace of the contagion’s spread may be changing. In the international media, the spotlight has been mainly on the accumulated confirmed cases and deaths. Consequently, the relative increase has been relegated to the sidelines.

Certainly, both sets of figures have a vital role. In absolute terms, accumulated cases reflect the human toll of the outbreak, in which even a single number is a tragedy. Yet relative terms are critical because they reflect the pace of the virus‘ spread.

Although the absolute number of confirmed cases and deaths is likely to climb for a while longer, the absolute number of new cases and their daily increase may be decelerating.

In retrospect, the number of accumulated cases began to soar around the third week of January. In part, this can be attributed to the virus outbreak itself and in part to China’s stringent containment measures. On Jan 24, the confirmed cases exceeded 1,000; a week later, the figure jumped over 10,000; another week later, over 30,000. Unfortunately, the accumulated number will still continue to rise.

In retrospect, the number of accumulated cases began to soar around the third week of January. In part, this can be attributed to the virus outbreak itself and in part to China’s stringent containment measures. On Jan 24, the confirmed cases exceeded 1,000; a week later, the figure jumped over 10,000; another week later, over 30,000. Unfortunately, the accumulated number will still continue to rise.

Nevertheless, the relative increase of these accumulated cases has progressively decreased since mid-January. Toward the end of the month, the rate accelerated briefly, perhaps as the result of tough quarantine measures in China. While the pace peaked at almost 100 percent after mid-January, it has declined to zero, and even gone negative since (Figure 1).

Figure 1 Accumulated Confirmed Cases, Jan 10 to Feb 9, 2020

Potential deceleration

Even more importantly, the relative daily increase of new cases, which have critical impact on the long-term duration and severity of the outbreak, may be amid a crossroads.

Confirmed new cases increased steadily from mid-January, soaring to almost 3,900 on Feb 4. Since then the numbers have fallen below 2,600. In relative terms, the change has been almost progressive, having plunged from almost 350 percent to negative (Figure 2).

Figure 2 Confirmed New Cases, Jan 10 to Feb 9, 2020

While the data could indicate a possible turnaround in the virus outbreak, there is no assurance the deceleration will prevail. It is well known virus trend lines can zigzag. Consequently, complacency in the struggle against the outbreak is no option.

There are other caveats as well. The right data is critical. The assumption is the number of confirmed cases is realistic. Furthermore, there is the risk of potential mutation. Current statistics are based on the assumption the crisis will not result in adverse mutations that would drastically change outcomes.

The big question is whether the deceleration trend will remain and strengthen. We can only hope so.

Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognized strategist and the founder of Difference Group.

The opinions expressed here are those of the writer and do not represent the views of China Daily and China Daily website.