Europeans start dreaming about holidays

Easing of lockdown rules offers hope of possible limited summer travels

With many European nations tentatively easing their novel coronavirus lockdowns and some residents emerging from homes for the first time in weeks, people across the continent are starting to plan holidays, according to a major bed-and-breakfast booking agency.

Brian Chesky, the chief executive of United States-based company Airbnb, which brokers accommodation lettings between customers and those offering rooms, says the company has seen a spike in demand.

Chesky told the Financial Times people in nations including Denmark and the Netherlands are now clamoring for a change of scenery.

"The recovery is better than what we had forecast even two weeks ago," he said of the boom in business. "Is it a temporary recovery? Is it a permanent recovery? Nobody knows."

The company, like many in the hospitality sector, has struggled because of the novel coronavirus pandemic and announced this week it will cut 25 percent of its workforce. It expects its 2020 revenue to be half of 2019's $4.8 billion.

But Chesky told the paper the sector, while likely changing, will bounce back.

"People, fundamentally, are still going to want to travel," he said. "But I don't think travel will look like it used to; I think it will be permanently altered."

And the International Air Transport Association, which is known as IATA, is also expecting a new look for the holiday industry.

It says airlines are likely to reduce the cost of air fares when they are allowed to fly again, but predicts fares will increase significantly in the longer term, when initial overcapacity is replaced by the reality of doing business under social distancing rules that are likely to require planes to fly half-empty.

Michael O'Leary, the boss of Ryanair, told the BBC the prospect of being forced to leave empty seats between passengers was "idiotic".

IATA quizzed 122 global airlines and found only four expected to be able to break even if they are indeed forced to only partially fill planes with passengers.

"It's tricky to understand how many airlines will be able to operate profitably. It will be a much smaller industry," Brian Pearce, IATA's chief economist, told the broadcaster.

Airlines have been struggling to stay solvent during the lockdown and Virgin Atlantic announced on Tuesday it will slash 3,000 jobs and no longer operate out of London's Gatwick Airport.

But, despite the gloom, a more optimistic tone emerged from Germany this week, where Thomas Bareiss, the nation's federal tourism commissioner, told Der Tagesspiegel newspaper Germans could be traveling abroad soon, if there is no second spike in infections.

He said Germans are likely to be restricted to neighboring countries initially and noted that the nation is already talking to other governments about the prospect.

"I hope that, given the good numbers, we will be able to relax the restrictions (on travel) in the next four to eight weeks," Bareiss said.

But his optimism did not initially offer anything for the beleaguered airlines; he said Germans are initially likely to be told to travel by automobile.

Italy's prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, has also suggested holidays may be possible. He told the newspaper Il Fatto Quotidiano on Wednesday that Italians may be allowed to head overseas if the virus remains under control.

But the president of France has been more cautious.

Emmanuel Macron told local media this week it is still too soon to talk about vacations.

"What I can say is that we will limit major international travel, even during the summer," he said. "We will stay among Europeans and, depending on how the epidemic evolves, we might have to reduce that a little more."