Earlier lockdown 'could have halved deaths'

Former British government scientific advisor Neil Ferguson has told a parliamentary committee the United Kingdom's final death toll from the novel coronavirus pandemic could have been halved if the lockdown had begun earlier.

"The epidemic was doubling every three to four days before lockdown ... so had we introduced lockdown a week earlier, we would have reduced the final toll by at least a half," he said. "We frankly underestimated how far into the epidemic this country was."

He made his comments shortly before the daily media briefing where the latest death toll was revealed to be 41,128, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced more relaxation of lockdown rules in England.

"This has been the most challenging period for shops and high streets in our history. It's now 82 days since we asked shops to close their doors, which is why I am so pleased we can allow all shops to reopen from Monday," he said.

Places of worship will be reopened for individual prayer from this weekend, and single adult households will be allowed to form support bubbles with one other household.

"All people (in the bubble) will be able to act as if they live in the same household," he said, in what he called "a targeted intervention to limit the most harmful effect of current social restrictions".

Senior figures in the National Health Service have warned the COVID-19 crisis could cause a backlog of up to 10 million people needing treatment by the end of the year.

The NHS Confederation, which covers England, Wales and Northern Ireland, said that by December waiting lists could more than double from the current figure of 4.2 million. The usual seasonal strain caused by the flu will be added to this winter by the fear of a second spike in novel coronavirus infection.

The confederation said it faces an "uphill battle" to restore services for patients with conditions including heart problems, stroke and cancer. Cancer treatment referrals have dropped significantly during the pandemic, and Mark Taylor, director of Northern Ireland for the Royal College of Surgeons, told the BBC that as a result, doctors could "see a situation of Herculean proportions coming our way".

The British Heart Foundation said there is a backlog of around 28,000 delayed cardiac procedures, and the Royal College of Nursing has warned staff - exhaustion could also cause problems.

"The legacy of this pandemic is yet to dawn - the professionals are still focused on the here and now," said a spokesman. "As services begin to return, the government must continue to invest in the workforce so that an exhausted profession ... is properly supported."

The pandemic is causing damage in other ways, with debt advice charity StepChange warning that 4.6 million households are in danger of building up dangerous debt levels, harming individuals and hampering the national economic recovery.

StepChange estimated that since March, around 4.2 million people have resorted to borrowing, and as many as 2.7 million have taken mortgage or credit agreement payment holidays.

"COVID-19 has so far added another 4 million people and counting to the number who are going to need help finding their way back to financial health," said chief executive Phil Andrew. "This is a problem that isn't going to solve itself."

However, some people have used the new circumstances to improve their finances, as working from home and furloughing have reduced outgoings. In April, bank deposits in the UK rose by more than 16 billion pounds ($20.3 billion), more than three times the monthly average, and almost 7.5 billion pounds of personal loan and credit card debt was repaid.

The former chief inspector of schools in England, Michael Wilshaw, said confusion over the now-dropped plan to reopen all schools this term is "absolutely astonishing".

"It just smacks of poor organization and No 10 (Downing Street) saying something and the DfE(Department for Education) not being properly consulted," he told BBC Radio 4's Today program. "The government needs to get its act together … and make sure there is proper planning for September when both primary and secondary schools come back."

Lee Elliot Major, former chief executive of the Sutton Trust education equality charity, has warned of a "tsunami of anxiety hitting schools" about pupils taking GCSE and A-level exams next year.

The economic impact of the outbreak has been felt right across the European Union. In the first three months of the year, GDP across the EU fell by 2.6 percent, and in the eurozone the figure was 3.1 percent. France, Italy, Spain and Slovakia experienced the biggest falls, with just four countries - Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden and Romania - reporting positive growth in the first quarter.

In Italy, families of some novel coronavirus victims in Milan have launched legal action after it emerged they were incorrectly buried in a section of a cemetery for people whose bodies were unclaimed. To add to their heartache, as the law stands, the bodies of those who die from an infectious disease cannot be exhumed for two years.

"My clients do not want to make a lawsuit against the council - that is not the point - they just want to be able to retrieve the body," lawyer Walter Marini told the Guardian newspaper.

"They want to move forward, like we all do, but they can't without being able to give their loved one a proper funeral."