Global CO2 emissions and China's challenges

4. Data analysis of top 30 emitting countries and regions

The top 30 emitting countries and regions make up nearly 90% of global CO2 emissions, and they are also home to 69% of the world's population, producing 84% of the world's GDP. Moreover, during 2000-2019, they contributed as much as 80.4% of global emission growth, a reality worthy of a thorough analysis.

(1) Changes of CO2 emissions

During 2000-2019, global CO2 emissions increased by 40%. However, among the top 30 emitters, seven major countries — the US, Japan, Germany, the U.K., Italy, France, and Spain — achieved CO2 emission reductions. Specifically, the U.K. reduced its emissions by 30%, Germany, Italy, and France by 20%, and the US, Japan, and Spain by 10%.

In the meantime, 23 countries with increased emissions, led by China and India, more than cancelled out the emission cuts made by the seven above. In fact, the reduction made by the aforementioned seven countries only offset 13.2% of the increase contributed by the 23, resulting in a steep rise in global emissions.

During the period, the emissions of China and India grew by 1.9 times and 1.6 times, respectively. China overtook the US in 2005 to become the economy with the largest CO2 emissions worldwide. India rose to third place, surpassing Japan and Russia. Vietnam, currently ranking 22nd in CO2 emissions, became the country with the most rapid increase in emissions at a growth rate of 510%.

(2) Changes of primary energy consumption

During 2000-2019, global primary energy consumption increased by 50%. Specifically, China became the economy with the fastest growth of energy consumption at a rate of 230%, and exceeded the United States in 2009 to be the world's biggest consumer of primary energy. India, with a growth rate of 160%, became the third biggest consumer of primary energy. Vietnam became the fastest-growing country in primary energy consumption during the period with a rate of 450%, ranking 22nd in primary energy consumption.

However, 22 countries reduced their primary energy consumption during the same period. Six countries out of the 22 are from the top 30 emitters, which are Japan, the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, and the US in the order of the magnitude of reduction. All the six countries are developed ones, among which the US even achieved a 50% real GDP growth during the period. In other words, the developed countries achieved fruitful outcomes in energy conservation and emission reduction.

(3) CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption

During 2000-2019, CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption were reduced across the top 30 emitters except India, Japan, Indonesia, South Africa, Vietnam, and Kazakhstan. The U.K. and Thailand decreased their CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption by 20%, and China, the US, Russia, Germany, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Canada, Brazil, Australia, Turkey, Italy, Poland, France, the United Arab Emirates, China's Taiwan, Spain, and Singapore by 10%.

The US has begun to develop new energy and CO2 emission reduction policies since President Clinton. In spite of policy changes under different presidents, the country has been continuously optimizing its energy structure. By 2017, renewable energy power generation had already accounted for 42% of the total power generation in the 11 Western states, as coal-fired power generation was phased down. Notably, the policy to push for small-scale natural gas power generation originated during the presidency of President Carter, and small-scale power generation fueled by natural gas became the country's largest power source in 2002.

Japan stood out as a unique case in the developed world. The country resorted to thermal power generation on a very large scale after the nuclear power failure in 2011. One third of its power came from coal-fired power generation, resulting in the increase in its CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption.

Coal-fired power generation occupies a larger proportion in the power sources of developing countries. For example, it accounts for as much as 46% in the power structure of Southeast Asia.

How to find an efficient way to terminate coal-fired power generation has become the most important step for the globe to achieve carbon neutrality. On April 21, 2021, in an article published on Nikkei, the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that developed economies must commit to phasing out coal by 2030; other countries must do this by 2040.

China relies heavily on coal-fired power generation. Despite the decrease in its CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption, coal still takes up as much as 57.7% of its primary energy consumption structure. Its energy structure needs to be optimized urgently.

At the Leaders Summit on Climate on April 22, the Chinese leader said that China will strictly control coal-fired power generation projects, and strictly limit the increase in coal consumption over the 14th Five-Year Plan period and phase it down in the 15th Five-Year Plan period. It indicates that China has truly gotten on a fast track of primary energy transition.

The analysis of the CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption of the 30 countries and regions shows that with the improvement of technologies, the increase of equipment investment, and the optimization of energy structure, most countries will steadily reduce their CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption. However, there are also cases whose CO2 emissions per unit of energy consumption increased even further, for example, Japan, due to radical changes in its energy structure caused by nuclear power failure, and India, Indonesia, and Vietnam, due to accelerated industrialization in recent years.

(4) Energy consumption per unit of GDP

During 2000-2019, energy consumption per unit of GDP decreased across the top 30 emitting countries and regions except Iran, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, countries like China, Russia, the U.K., and Poland saw reductions by 40%; the US, Japan, Germany, South Korea, France, China's Taiwan, and Kazakhstan by 30%; India, Indonesia, Canada, South Africa, Australia, Italy, Spain, and Malaysia by 20%; and Mexico, Turkey, Singapore, Egypt, and Pakistan by 10%.

With the improvement in technologies, the increase of equipment investment, and the optimization of energy structure, most countries have continuously improved their energy efficiency. During 2000-2019, energy consumption per unit of GDP on a global scale dropped significantly by 20%. There are also exceptions. For instance, Iran, whose economy suffered from the sanctions of the US, and Vietnam, due to rapid industrialization, both saw declines in energy efficiency, while their energy consumption per unit of GDP went up by 50% and 60%, respectively.

(5) Changes of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP

During 2000-2019, CO2 emissions per unit of GDP dropped across the top 30 CO2 emitters, except Iran, Saudi Arabia, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates. Specifically, the U.K. and Poland halved their CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, the largest reductions in carbon intensity; China cut its CO2 intensity by 40%, which was also a remarkable decrease; the US, Russia, Germany, and France, and China's Taiwan by 40%; South Korea, Canada, Australia, Italy, Spain and Kazakhstan by 30%; India, Japan, South Africa, Turkey, Malaysia, Singapore, and Egypt by 20%; and Indonesia, Mexico, Thailand, and Pakistan by 10%.

On the contrary, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam increased their carbon intensity by 10%, 40% and 80%, respectively.

Thanks to the steep decline in carbon intensity among major emitters, global CO2 emissions per unit of GDP decreased by 18.1% in the period.

China has scored huge success in reducing its carbon intensity, as its carbon intensity accounts for only 76.1% of India's, 64.9% of Russia and 60.3% of Vietnam. However, China is still lagging behind developed countries, since China's carbon intensity is 180%, 260%, 450% and 500% higher than the US, Japan, Germany, the U.K. and France, respectively. Therefore, the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-2015) set out a scheme in which controlling carbon intensity acts as the main task supplemented with controlling carbon emissions. How to quickly reduce carbon intensity and shift to a low-carbon development pattern remains a daunting challenge.