Census to help China prepare for challenges

Analyze data to work out proper response

The census comes with a wide range of data. About 63.3 percent of China's population is between 15 and 59 years old. How many of these people will be above 60 or 65 in the next decade? Such data are important, as they tell us what kind of problems we could face in the next decade including fiscal, healthcare, pension and employment-related problems.

People aged between 60 and 69 years account for 55.83 percent of the total 60-plus-year-old population. Although I believe people just a little above 60 can work for some more years, the fact is that a five-year age gap, say, from 60 to 65 or from 65 to 70, makes a big difference. It means increased burden, reduced economic contribution and more difficulty in continuing to work, especially using new technologies. All these issues need to be further analyzed to determine how economic units should respond to these challenges in the future.

Mao Daqing, a member of the Pangoal Institution academic committee

Policies should address aging society problems

We should look at the declining fertility rate and rapidly rising aging population from the perspective of demographic theory and the law of population development.

The decline in fertility and mortality rates are the two main reasons for an aging society. Declining fertility means a decline in new births and fewer people being added to younger age groups, while a decline in the mortality rate means people are living longer and more elderly people are concentrated at the top of the age structure, leading to an aging population.

In the early years of the People's Republic of China, the country's life expectancy was about 43 years. Today, it is 77.3 years, and it will continue to increase. Therefore, the general trend of an aging population cannot be changed, and could lead to rising conflicts between generations, growing burden on households and more problems due to shortage of public services for senior citizens. The decision-makers need to formulate policies to address the accelerating aging society problem.

Yuan Xin, a demographer at Nankai University