Nation leads way for overseas travel resumption

Mutual recognition

There is a growing consensus in the international tourism sector that establishing mutual recognition mechanisms for vaccine passports could be a major step in paving the way for safe and smooth cross-border travel.

The International Air Transport Association, or IATA, is a strong advocate of the use of digital vaccine and testing certificates to support the resumption of international travel.

The IATA Travel Pass is being developed to manage testing and vaccination documentation for travel. However, the association emphasizes that global standards are needed to enable these efforts to be fully realized.

An IATA representative said, "It is absolutely vital that agreement is reached on a digital standard for testing and vaccination documentation. Without globally recognized standards to prove that someone has been vaccinated or tested, the potential for frustrated travelers, fraudulent 'players' and overwhelmed border authorities is very real.

"That's why we are urging the World Health Organization to expedite its work on standards for this documentation. Without it, we will have to rely on paper documents and the system will come to a halt."

The industry's future

In its latest update, the World Tourism Organization predicts that international tourist arrivals this year will be 55 percent to 67 percent below the levels seen in 2019, depending on how quickly countries roll out vaccines to lift travel restrictions.

Buhalis, from Bournemouth University, said, "I think that in 2021 we will see safe corridors being developed between countries that have low epidemiological loads."

He added that the bulk of tourism activity will be primarily focused on domestic and regional travel.

Based on the current situation, travel data analyst ForwardKeys expects international travel to return fully to its pre-pandemic level in 2026.

Ponti, from ForwardKeys, said, "With China's economy quickly recovering, I believe there is a lot of pent-up demand for international travel. Chinese outbound travel demand is still strong, and when the conditions are right, this demand will translate into bookings and China will renew its leading role in the global travel economy."

He believes destinations that provide a safe experience and re-establish good air links with the Chinese mainland will recover first.

Beard, from China Travel Outbound, said that while in the short- to medium-term international travel would struggle to return to pre-pandemic levels in terms of numbers, she expects the Chinese market to see pre-COVID-19 figures in terms of value much more quickly than others.

"The Chinese economy has weathered the storm extremely well and people in China have the desire to travel and the money to do so," she said. "Fewer trips will be made, but they will be longer and more luxurious."

Arlt, from the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, said that after the pandemic, "the question for international tourism is not just to get back to 2019 (levels), but to move forward to a better, more sustainable tourism, to what I call 'Meaningful Tourism'."

Destinations such as Scotland are aware of the need to develop better offers for the Chinese market and create more satisfaction for the next wave of visitors from the country.

Malcolm Roughead, VisitScotland chief executive, said, "We are working in partnership with Scottish Enterprise, the Confucius Institute for Scotland and the Edinburgh Tourism Action Group to create cultural training resources for use by staff in the tourism and hospitality sectors.

"This will help them understand the importance of the Chinese tourism market as well as Chinese culture and the needs of Chinese in order to ensure that these visitors are given the warmest Scottish welcome when they return."