Border tensions fan flames of migration politics

Financial suggestion

The Kremlin did not make a strong response, but Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested the EU could provide financial assistance to Belarus in order to encourage the country to stop migrants crossing into the bloc.

Lavrov argued that the growing standoff was the fault of the EU, adding that Brussels' migration policies are responsible for a worsening humanitarian crisis on the border between Poland and Belarus.

Despite Moscow's ongoing support for Minsk, analysts cast doubt on accusations that Russia has contrived the migration crisis, saying Moscow's position regarding its neighbor is complex and often contradictory.

There is broad agreement among Russian experts that the migration crisis is an attempt by Lukashenko to force Europe to talk to him, and therefore to lessen his dependence on Russia.

Andrey Kortunov, head of the Russian International Affairs Council, a Kremlin-aligned think tank, said, "Throughout this crisis, Lukashenko has been trying to force the West into dialogue."

This month, Lukashenko threatened to shut off the Yamal pipeline, which carries Russian gas through Belarus to Europe, causing concern for Moscow at a time when gas supplies to the EU are a sensitive issue.

In an interview with Russian state television, Putin rebuked Lukashenko for the pipeline threat, dismissing his Belarusian ally as "overly emotional".

Kortunov said Russia's contradictory actions throughout the crisis－signaling support for Lukashenko with military drills in Belarus, while also coordinating with European leaders to defuse the crisis－point to the Kremlin's complex position on Belarus, with the aim of keeping Lukashenko in office while preventing him from resuming his traditional independence.

"Lukashenko wants to put some distance between Minsk and Moscow and to increase his for maneuver independent of Russia. It would be strange if Putin supported him in that," Kortunov said.