Review and forecast: How execs view industry and China's economy

Alan Li, president, CBRE China

Q3: How do you rate China's economic performance in 2021?

China continued to lead global economic recovery, with its GDP increasing by 9.8 percent year-on-year during the first three quarters of 2021. Structural upgrading sped up. Advanced manufacturing and high-tech service sectors both realized much faster growth by over 20 percent.

As a barometer of economy, commercial real estate market has demonstrated a sharp rebound. As a commercial real estate services and investment company, CBRE found that for the first three quarters of 2021, net absorption for both office and warehouse space, and overall commercial real investment volume all hit new record highs in China.

The dual-circulation paradigm has encouraged a rapid rise in demand for Industrial assets – whether logistics, warehouse, cold storage and data centers. Investment into these asset classes hit a record level in the first three quarters.

Q1: How do you evaluate your company's performance in China as well as in the global market in 2021?

China has always been a critical market for CBRE, and is now one of the strongest growth markets among the more than 100 countries and regions in which CBRE operates.

In 2021, we have witnessed the huge achievements that China has made in preventing the rebound of COVID-19, and benefit from the journey as a global company. With the emergence of new trends and changes, demand for commercial real estate has been rising steadily, presenting sizable opportunities for us. This year, CBRE China continues to expand in business and scale, riding on strong momentum of industrial upgrading, technology innovation, and a new phase of urbanization.

We've had a presence here for more than 40 years, and now we operate with nine full-service offices in the Chinese mainland conducting work across over 100 cities. Our business in China has evolved to meet the expanding needs of our clients and stakeholders – today we increasingly serve the needs of our Chinese clients to support their national and global ambitions.

Q2: Do you plan to deepen your company's footprint in China next year? If so, how?

Localization and collaboration are the core strategies of CBRE.

To deepen our footprint in China, we will not only extend our service to wider geographic scope and larger client base, but also align CBRE's business strategy with China's ongoing economic and social transformation. One area I would like to highlight is decarbonization.

As China puts forward its "3060" carbon goals, real estate is indispensable in the process of reducing carbon emissions. As a worldwide commercial real estate services and investment firm, CBRE will further enhance our holistic approach from urban planning to property management, from office buildings to industrial facilities, to help our clients minimize business risk and total cost of ownership while reducing carbon emission.

CBRE has recently announced a commitment to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2040. This commitment encompasses carbon emissions from CBRE's own operations and the properties we manage for investors and occupiers, as well as indirect supply chain emissions. This is an essential element of our commitment to the local communities.

Q4: What are your views on the improvements in China's business environment in 2021, and what are your expectations for the country's further reform and opening-up?

This year marks the 20th anniversary of China's accession to WTO, and China's continued commitment to opening-up strengthens our confidence and resolution to continue to expand our strategic footprint in China.

We witnessed further improvement of China's business environment in 2021. The proposed negative list for foreign investment was further shortened, and recently the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission announced to remove the cap on foreign ownership of insurance asset management companies. In addition, domestic reform and breakthrough such as public REITs and Beijing Stock Exchange continued to drive the economic transformation and upgrade.

This is set to significantly benefit CBRE's business in China. Our latest survey shows that over 60 percent of occupiers plan to expand their China presence in the next three years, with TMT and life science companies being most active. Meanwhile, we believe the official launch of China's public REITs market this year will greatly activate the industrial real estate sector, and the entire commercial property market in the long run.

This year, China's determination to promote the high-level opening-up and the need for further global cooperation across trade and investment, digital economy, and sustainable development has been reiterated. In 2022, RCEP will officially come into force. I am very looking forward to China's further opening-up and reform. CBRE will continue to leverage our global platform and localized know-how to create value for our clients in China.

Q5: What are your forecasts of China and the global economic performance in 2022?

Despite the recent outbreak of Omicron variant and geographically uneven vaccination and recovery process, we expect the global economy to stay on track of normalization.

The latest China Economic Work Conference sets stability as the top priority for 2022, with sustained intensity of fiscal expenditure, prudent but accommodative monetary policy, continued improvement of business environment and transformation toward an innovation-driven development model.

We expect China's GDP to expand by more than 5 percent, and remain as the leading contributor to the growth and resilience of the global economy. In the meantime, its underpinning long-term trends such as urbanization, rising middle class and technological upgrade will continue to unfold new opportunities in the commercial real estate sector investment such as logistics, life science, built to rent sectors, as well as cyclical opportunities such as grade A offices in tier-one cities.