China shares seen holding their own this year

Despite short-term fluctuations triggered by external uncertainties, China's stock market is likely to remain resilient and attract more attention from global investors this year, investment banks and asset managers said on Tuesday.

They said three key factors are likely to underpin global investor interest in Chinese A shares－continuous steps on capital market reform and opening-up, high earnings growth accompanied by attractive valuation levels and notable diversification benefit provided by the country's distinctive macroeconomic policy moves.

They made the comments as China's A-share market ended lower on Tuesday as global financial markets held their breath amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.96 percent to close at 3457.15 points on Tuesday.

Though concerns over tensions between Russia and Ukraine may continue to roil financial markets for some time, investment banks and asset managers said they remain upbeat about China's A-share market in the medium and long term.

"We believe China A shares, a $14 trillion asset class, have become more investable given the ongoing liberalization and reform measures in the Chinese capital markets," said a Goldman Sachs report.

"This reinforces our strategic view that China equity is an asset class that is too big, too growthy and too vibrant to ignore, and will bring profound allocation benefits, thematic appeal and alpha opportunities to global equity investors," the report said.

According to Goldman Sachs, China's A shares are likely to deliver high earnings growth, look attractively valued relative to other major markets and show low return correlations with global equity markets, which potentially offers positive portfolio benefits.

Northbound trading of the stock connect programs between mainland and Hong Kong exchanges saw net foreign capital worth 7.34 billion yuan ($1.15 billion) flow out of A shares on Tuesday as sentiment among global investors soured, according to market tracker Wind Info.

A net 14.26 billion yuan, however, has flowed into mainland exchanges from the beginning of the year to Tuesday via northbound trading despite the expected interest rate hikes by the United States Federal Reserve, pointing to the robust appeal of A shares.

"Investors seeking to diversify their global portfolios would be remiss not to look at China, where policymakers are charting a very distinctive course from Western counterparts in the year ahead," said Louis Luo, investment director in multi-asset solutions with abrdn, a global investment company.

More measures supportive of economic growth are expected to take effect in China, such as increased infrastructure spending, rising investment in the manufacturing sector, tax cuts and stimulus moves to drive consumer spending. This could coincide with acceleration in credit expansion, which will bolster markets and valuations, Luo said.

"We are positive on the prospects for Chinese A shares this year, backed by still positive earnings growth and a re-rating in valuations. We favor a balanced exposure between new-economy stocks with a strong growth outlook and old-economy holdings with a valuation buffer."

Kaifusai Julaiti contributed to this story.