China forges ahead with green transition in midst of global energy crisis

So far, so good

Recent signs have been promising. At a United Nations climate change round table in New York on Sept 21, China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that China plans to "unswervingly follow the path of ecological priority, green and low-carbon development".

And an independent analysis from the Climate Action Tracker, or CAT, shows that China is on course to meet several key climate targets early.

In 2020, China pledged to peak emissions by 2030 and reduce carbon intensity — or emissions per unit of GDP — by over 65 percent in 2030 from 2005 levels.

CAT projects that China is likely to "comfortably overachieve its targets without substantially increasing its current mitigation efforts". It could achieve peaking by, or slightly after, 2025, and reduce carbon intensity by 67 percent by 2030.

"China has a track record of setting ambitious climate targets which it meets ahead of schedule," said British economist Nicholas Stern, who is chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. "It is a sign of the importance that China attaches to setting ambitious but credible targets."

Stern said it has been "apparent for some time" that China's annual emissions of greenhouse gasses could peak well before 2030 by "accelerating its transition away from fossil fuels, particularly coal".

"China's economy would benefit from the investments in low-carbon growth that would be required to peak emissions in 2025," he said. "And it would be a demonstration of leadership and signal the seriousness of China's intent to achieve carbon neutrality."