Experts leery of US defense shift on Taiwan

The record $858 billion proposed US defense budget contains increased commitments to Taiwan that could lead to eventual confrontation over the island, according to some observers.

The US House of Representatives, in the budget it passed on Dec 8, incorporated the Taiwan Enhanced Resiliency Act (TERA, formerly the Taiwan Policy Act) into the legislation, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA).

"The US media has largely ignored the House passage of the largest military budget in US history, treating it as a routine event," Andre Damon wrote on the World Socialist Web Site (WSWS) on Dec 9.

"The entire US political establishment is united behind plans for escalating its conflict with Russia and China, to be paid for through a deepening offensive against the social rights of the US population," Damon said.

The NDAA, which cleared the House by a 350-80 vote, allocated $45 billion more for defense spending than President Joe Biden had requested.

The Senate is expected to pass the NDAA this week, sending it to the White House for Biden to sign into law.

Senator Robert Menendez, a New Jersey Democrat who introduced TERA with Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, described Taiwan as the "beating heart" of US Indo-Pacific strategy.

US Representative Mike Gallagher, a Wisconsin Republican, said of the overall legislation: "This year's NDAA … takes concrete steps towards preparing for a future conflict with China by investing in American hard power, strengthening American posture in the Indo-Pacific and supporting our allies."

Taiwan was referenced 438 times in the NDAA, more than Russia (237) and Ukraine (159), according to the WSWS.

"Some of the most negative measures in the original bill were also left out, including a set of highly provocative 'findings' that defined Taiwan as a critical strategic asset for the United States," wrote Michael Swaine in an article on Responsible Statecraft, the website of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in New York City.

"Unfortunately, however, TERA as passed still contains elements that reinforce the existing one-sided and almost purely militaristic approach to the Taiwan problem. There is no recognition of the highly negative, interactive US-China dynamic over Taiwan (and relations in general) that is moving us steadily toward conflict," wrote Swaine, who is director of the Quincy Institute's East Asia program.

"Such a stance, if clearly reflected in Washington policy, would put us more, not less, firmly on the path to conflict with China over Taiwan. This is because no amount of US military deterrence and close relations with Taiwan will deter today's much stronger China from resorting to war if it concludes that America is actively seeking to permanently separate Taiwan from China," wrote Swaine, who formerly was at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he worked for nearly two decades as a senior fellow specializing in Chinese defense and foreign policy.

"A policy of opposition to even peaceful unification is diametrically opposed to the one-China policy (which accepts … the possibility of peaceful unification, and would thus give Beijing the incentive to entirely abandon its long-standing preference for peaceful unification)," he continued.

He wrote that the TERA "reinforces much of the dangerous political elements of US Taiwan policy. In doing so, it will not appreciably reduce the possibility of a war with China over Taiwan. This reinforces the highly dangerous notion that keeping Taiwan separate from China under any conditions is a strategic necessity for the United States."

In a Nov 30 article for defenseone.com, William Hartung, a senior research fellow at the Quincy Institute, expressed concern over the Pentagon's annual report on China's military power, which was released last month.

"Recent statements by the Biden administration, coupled with visits to the island by high-ranking government officials such as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have undermined the 'one-China' policy, in which the US forgoes formal recognition of Taiwan in exchange for a pledge by China to seek a non-military solution to the question of the island's status," Hartung wrote.

"This approach has kept the peace in the Taiwan Straits for decades, and a return to that approach is the best way to head off a future military confrontation," he said.

Hartung noted that the Pentagon report mentions China's military base in Djibouti, Africa, and that it possibly could add logistics hubs in a handful of other nations.

"China's moves should be contrasted with the US global military footprint, which includes more than 750 military bases, 200,000 troops deployed abroad, and counterterror operations in at least 85 nations," he wrote. "China is in no position to match US military reach, and the impact of its plans should not be overstated.

Reuters contributed to this story.