China foldables on rise, seek more global sales

Honor unveiled its latest foldable smartphone Magic Vs in November. Priced from 7,499 yuan ($1,087) in China, the Magic Vs will be Honor's very first foldable flagship product to debut in overseas markets, said Zhao Ming, CEO of Honor.

Zhao said foldable smartphones, which have witnessed rapid growth among all handsets during the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to continue their rise in the coming years.

"In the future, I believe that 20 to 30 percent of smartphones above 5,000 yuan will be foldable smartphones, and this proportion will grow over time," Zhao added.

Vivo, the official smartphone sponsor of the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, also unveiled its latest foldable smartphone X Fold+ in September, which became the first official foldable smartphone in the 118-year history of FIFA. Vivo said its hinge allows the phone to fold flat or to be propped open at angles between 60 and 120 degrees, and the phone's screen should survive 300,000 folds.

Another smartphone brand Motorola, which is owned by Chinese tech company Lenovo, also made a big push with its foldable smartphone Moto Razr 2022. Starting from 5,999 yuan, it can be folded to the size of a wallet and fit in people's pockets or bags. Motorola said users can make video calls, send texts, take pictures and access their favorite apps without opening the foldable smartphone.

Huawei also unveiled its foldable smartphone Mate Xs2 earlier last year, which was the fifth generation of foldable smartphones it had unveiled in the past three years. The move was Huawei's latest push to revive its smartphone business, despite US government restrictions on the company.

In comparison to smartphone makers' optimism, industry analysts remain more conservative. "With almost 70 percent year-on-year growth estimated for foldables in 2022, the biggest question today is whether foldables will become mainstream anytime soon. Unfortunately, the answer is no," said Nabila Popal, research director with IDC's worldwide quarterly mobile phone tracker.

"To me, mainstream means volume, and volume is dominated by cheaper, sub-$400 phones. While it may be tempting for vendors to swoop in with lower selling prices to generate an initial boost in sales, I strongly believe that is not a good move — especially not at the expense of quality and user experience. Foldables should remain a niche and premium flagship device," Popal said.

According to her, vendors should focus on improving user experience, increasing confidence in the category and generating long-term growth.

"I believe foldables are the future of premium Android devices even if, as a whole, they are only expected to capture less than 3 percent of global volume by the end of our forecast period (2026)," Popal added.

The views were shared by Zaker Li, principal analyst with market research company Omdia's mobile devices team. Li said as more companies launch foldable smartphones, the diversity of designs and the use of new folding forms will increase.

However, since foldable smartphones are expected to occupy the highest position in the smartphone lineups of all manufacturers in the future, the possibility that foldable phones will become a mainstream market in the future is very low, according to Omdia.

Park from Counterpoint said three key things must happen before the foldable smartphone sector sees any significant sales volume, namely, significant price declines with flagships at around $1,000-$1,500, more vendor participants and Apple's entry into the space.

The first two points are happening. "The latter is an important milestone as Apple is known to be extra cautious on costs and component sourcing. A foldable iPhone is a nod to the robustness of the technology," Park added.