Research sees increased global security risks

This year is expected to see increased global security risks triggered by the gloomy economic outlook and geopolitical tensions, including ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, according to a newly released research.

China’s Overseas Security Risks Blue Book 2023, jointly issued on Tuesday by the China Overseas Security Research Institute, or COSRI, and the Institute for National Security Studies at Renmin University of China, pointed out several risks including worldwide economic uncertainties and the energy crisis.

Record-high inflation has aggravated the gap between developing countries and developed countries since last year, the report said.

Lin Rui, academic chair of the COSRI, said that several developed countries have adopted monetary easing policies, which has restrained the momentum for economic recovery.

Last year the US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times for a total increase of 425 base points, spurring criticism of widespread economic disruption and a rise in poverty, especially in the developing world.

Lin said that the effect of Fed’s monetary measures may be delayed and will further raise the possibility of an economic recession, Lin added.

Last October, the International Monetary Fund published an article about the global economic outlook, which expected a shrinking world economy in 2023 with higher food and energy prices.

The World Bank also sharply lowered its global GDP growth forecast to 1.7 percent for 2023, and warned the risk of recession in its Global Economic Prospects published in January.

Meanwhile, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine crisis would continue to bring more uncertainties to global supply chains and trigger an energy crunch and food crisis as the two countries are major exporters of grains and energy in the world, Lin said.

For Chinese businesses, complications in US-China relations politically and economically have posed more uncertainties, the report said.

Yang Guangbin, dean of the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China, said that racial discrimination against Asians and the depiction of China as a "major threat" by the US and some of its allies also raised concerns.

"As China sets to take center stage in the world, it has to embrace the opportunities coupled with more risks and uncertainties," Yang said.

Liu Jianqiao contributed to this story.