Nation consolidates green energy transition

Global leader

Thermal power capacity, which includes coal- and natural gas-fired power plants, rose by 2.7 percent to just over 1,332 GW last year, according to the China Electricity Council, an industry body. Renewable energy capacity growth was much steeper, with hydropower and solar power rising by 5.8 percent and 28.1 percent, respectively, to 413.5 GW and 392.6 GW.

Wind power increased by 11.2 percent to 365.4 GW, while nuclear power capacity rose by 4.3 percent to 55.5 GW, the council said.

China plans to install another 160 GW of solar and wind energy capacity this year. The nation's total installed generation capacity for renewable energy now exceeds 1,200 GW, with its hydropower, wind power, solar power and biomass power generation capacity ranking first globally, according to the National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top economic planner.

This might be why some climate experts and independent groups tracking carbon emissions believe that such emissions in China may have fallen last year and may continue to drop, despite the rising use of coal.

The International Energy Agency said it expects China's carbon emissions to remain broadly flat, while Carbon Monitor estimates that the nation's emissions dropped by 1.5 percent last year, The Wall Street Journal reported. Carbon Monitor is an international initiative that uses 10 research groups to provide regularly updated, science-based estimates of daily carbon dioxide emissions in different countries.

In November, Global Carbon Project, a research consortium used by the UN to produce annual data focused on emissions, forecast that China's emissions fell by 0.9 percent last year.

The China Electricity Council said power demand in the nation is expected to rise by 6 percent this year, with much of it met by wind, solar and nuclear power generation, which are expected to account for more than half of the country's power generation capacity by the end of the year.

Luo said coal-fired power additions are unlikely to see the biggest capacity increases in China this year, as solar and wind will witness significant growth. Emissions resulting from coal power generation will gradually plateau before declining, as long as nonfossil fuel power sources continue to increase in importance, and demand for electricity stabilizes, he added.

"As a result, the ever-increasing proportion of renewable energy will result in coal plants playing more of a supportive role, and there is a high chance that such plants might operate below capacity with lower emissions than some industry observers expect," Luo said.

China's installed thermal power generation capacity rose by 2.7 percent to nearly 1,332.40 million kilowatts by the end of last year. In comparison, the nation's installed power generation capacity rose by 7.8 percent year-on-year to just over 2,564.05 million kW, National Bureau of Statistics data show.

Thermal power generation, which largely relies on coal, rose by just 1.4 percent in China last year, while activity in the two largest coal-burning industries, crude steel and cement production, witnessed falls of 1.7 percent and 10.5 percent, respectively, the bureau said.