Experts forecast sunny outlook for 2024 Chinese travel market

Trip numbers expected to continue post-pandemic recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic severely impacted outbound travel from China, causing a halt for nearly three years. The recovery of international travel in 2023 was slower than expected after China reopened its borders. However, experts are optimistic that in 2024, a full recovery will occur, re-establishing China as the world's largest travel market.

The latest data from the United Nations World Tourism Organization, or UNWTO, indicates that the Chinese outbound tourism market recovered about 55 percent in the third quarter of 2023. As reported by global travel data provider OAG, in Nov 2023 domestic capacity surpassed 2019 levels by 11 percent, but international seats were 57 percent of numbers from Nov 2019.

Oliver Sedlinger, an international tourism consultant at Sedlinger and Associates in Beijing, is optimistic about the Chinese market. He highlighted 2023's strong comeback and predicted a positive outlook for 2024, emphasizing the need for the European travel industry to re-engage with the Chinese market.

He stressed the importance of re-establishing connections, staying informed about market trends, and not overlooking the vast potential of the Chinese market.

"For long-term strategic benefits, I think it makes a lot of sense to observe this market and to learn about its travel preferences," Sedlinger added.

Wolfgang Arlt, director of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, predicted fierce competition among China, the United States and Germany for the title of the largest global outbound tourism source market in 2023, with all three countries reaching similar levels.

However, Arlt confidently stated that "In 2024, China for sure will be back as world No 1, with China's arrival numbers in most destinations to reach, at the very least, almost the same level as the pre-pandemic year of 2019".

Dragon Trail, a China-focused digital marketing and travel company, predicts a 70-percent recovery for China's outbound travel market by the end of 2023, aligning with airlines' winter-spring season plans.

Tiana Tian, a research analyst at Dragon Trail, anticipated 2024 as a year of recovery, with the remaining 30 percent of lost travel demand gradually returning throughout the year, driven by holiday periods like May Day and the National Day Golden Week, and with a full recovery to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

"Limited personal income and time constraints are cited as the primary reasons for Chinese travelers choosing not to go abroad as indicated by our survey results," she added.

According to Tian, the preferences of Chinese tourists are evolving towards high-quality and experiential travel. Personalized and flexible travel products are gaining popularity, while self-driving tours and specialized tourism offerings tailored to specific interests are also attracting attention. These trends are particularly prominent among the post-90s and post-00s generations, who exhibit a preference for independent travel planning.

Chinese nationals made 155 million overseas visits in 2019, spending a staggering $255 billion, according to data from the China Tourism Academy and the UNWTO. This is nearly double the total spent by visitors from the US, three times the total spent by Germans, and almost four times the total spent by British tourists.

In a recent report by the World Travel and Tourism Council, it was revealed that travelers from the Chinese mainland surpassed individuals from other markets in terms of shopping expenditures. On average, Chinese travelers spent $1,350 per person, highlighting their significant contribution to the global tourism market.

David Goodger, managing director for Europe and the Middle East at Tourism Economics, said: "Chinese travel will take further large strides towards recovery in 2024 and we anticipate that international travel spending will surpass 2019 values next year."

"Restoring connectivity is the crucial first step in driving growth from China and regaining market share, as well as continuing to ensure easy visa application processes. Further movement towards more facilitative visa policy or even visa-free travel will ensure an uplift in activity and allow gains in market share," he said.

Goodger believes increasing wealth and the continued growth in the travel class will mean that there will also be a lot of new travellers still wanting some of the more traditional package tours.

"As recovery continues, we anticipate that Chinese travellers will visit a wider range of destinations and participate in additional activities. Some continued shift in per trip spend (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) is likely to persist," he added.