US making huge oil fortune from conflict in Middle East

The crude oil exports of the United States surged from 3.915 million barrels per day to 5.292 million barrels per day in the last week of 2023, an increase of 1.3 million barrels, largely as the result of the fighting in the Middle East and its spillover effects, especially Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea, which have caused some countries to import oil from the US to cut oil costs and reduce risks.

Some analysts point out the chaos in the Middle East is pushing customers into the embrace of US oil producers and predict the US' crude oil exports will hit a record high in the coming weeks.

The Suez Canal has long been an important transit route for oil transport from the Persian Gulf to the rest of the world. However, the shipping crisis in the Red Sea emanating from the protracted Gaza conflict has forced many cargo ships to choose alternative routes, causing not only transport delays but also increased costs. A report from Standard& Poor's Global Ratings believes that shipping via the Cape of Good Hope could increase transport costs by at least 15 percent. In this context, it is more cost-effective for shipping companies to send cargo ships to the US Gulf Coast and buy US oil.

The war in the Middle East is the direct cause of the current surge in US crude oil exports, but over a longer time horizon, US oil exports have generally maintained an upward trend. Since the US lifted a ban on oil exports in 2015, its oil exports have set new records almost every year, except for 2020 and 2021 when oil export growth stagnated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is related to the US' shale gas revolution in 2015, which has increased its oil production efficiency and boosted its competitiveness in the international oil market.

After the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, the US filled the market vacuum left by Western sanctions on Russia's oil exports. In 2022 and 2023 when the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries negotiated a joint production cut to raise oil prices, the US did the opposite, contributing to the long-term expansion of its oil export share.

In the context of the crisis in the Red Sea shipping lanes, US oil exporters have become the biggest winner, but this "windfall" will not last. Realizing oil imports from the US are unsustainable, even some US allies such as Germany and other European countries have signed long-term oil and gas supply contracts with Qatar, Egypt and other countries.

The US' own huge demand also limits its ability to sell more oil to other countries. Oil transport from the Persian Gulf to Europe and East Asia via the traditional Suez-Red Sea route enjoys unparalleled cost advantages and when geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East end, the oil export windfall the US has reaped will disappear.

BEIJING NEWS