New faces set to steer Sino-US climate ties

Significant contributions

Wang Yi, vice-chair of China's National Expert Panel on Climate Change, said the competitive and cooperative engagement between Xie and Kerry occurred against the backdrop of the Paris Agreement, which changed the paradigm of global climate diplomacy.

The accord adopted a bottom-up structure to set emission targets for different parties. The change made strong leadership especially important in global climate negotiations, which involve almost 200 parties, he said.

China, as a representative of developing nations, and the US, which represents developed countries, had, without doubt, forged the most important bilateral relationship for multilateral action on tackling global climate change, Wang said.

"Xie and Kerry were pushed to the foreground in this special era," he said.

Li Zheng, president of Tsinghua University's Institute of Climate Change and Sustainable Development, said Xie and Kerry made historic contributions to the world by ensuring that China and the US exercised climate leadership.

President Xi Jinping and then US president Barack Obama laid the foundations of international support for the Paris Agreement, which was adopted in 2015, by making a joint public announcement on climate change in Beijing in late 2014.

Xie, then deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission, and Kerry, then US secretary of state, played an important role in bringing about the announcement by their heads of state, Li said, adding that they were also behind five other China-US joint announcements and one joint declaration on climate change.

He said they also contributed a lot to safeguarding multilateralism under the Paris treaty and the accord's authority.

"When parties were at their wits' end trying to reach a consensus (at COP26 in 2021) in Glasgow, for example, China and the US released a joint declaration … thanks to the efforts of Xie and Kerry," Li said, adding that the joint declaration turned the situation around and helped ensure the success of COP26.

Dimitri de Boer, regional director for Asia at the environmental law organization ClientEarth, said that together with the other parties in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, Xie and Kerry had "laid the groundwork for strong global climate action, which is now extremely urgent".

Most recently, they came to an ambitious agreement in California in November for both sides to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.That had, in turn, been adopted as a global target at COP28, he said.

De Boer said their close personal relationship had allowed the US and China to continue an informal climate dialogue despite geopolitical tensions.

"Their relationship has not only helped to bring the formal US-China climate dialogue back on track, I believe it has even contributed to some progress in broader US-China relations," he said.

Rajendra Shende, who in 2007 was coordinating lead author for a report by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change when it shared the Nobel Peace Prize with former US vice-president Al Gore, said the legacies left by Xie and Kerry were in the form of lessons learned.

One of the lessons was that bilateral rapport should be able to show tangible results that benefit not only two countries but the whole world.

"Climate change is a global issue, not bilateral," he said. "But bilateral ties can trigger global benefits."

Wang of the National Expert Panel on Climate Change said Xie and Kerry were competent climate diplomats with strong, comprehensive leadership skills and political wisdom.

Their retirements will certainly have an impact, and China and the US may have to go through a transitional period in their climate diplomacy, Wang said.

But that won't matter much in the long run, because the two countries generally still hope to have better communication with each other, and that would provide a solid foundation for climate cooperation.

Li said that Xie and Kerry had formed a very good working relationship that followed a rule that Xie defined as the "comfort principle", which was to take care of the core interests of the other side and not to breach its bottom line.

Li said their successors will need some time for mutual adaptation, but he is optimistic about the future of China-US climate cooperation.