Q3 growth ups hopes of meeting full-year target

China's stronger-than-expected 4.6-percent economic expansion in the third quarter has bolstered the confidence in the world's second-largest economy of achieving its full-year growth target, with growth momentum to further accelerate in the rest of the year, officials and analysts said.

Large-scale government bond issuances may work with more liquidity injection as early as November to drive near-term growth, analysts said, while urging policymakers to focus more on reversing the lingering tepid consumer confidence to address medium-term growth challenges.

David Chao, Invesco's global market strategist for the Asia-Pacific region (excluding Japan), said: "Given the recently announced stimulus measures, I'm confident that economic growth is likely to accelerate in the fourth quarter, which is likely to boost full-year 2024 growth above the 5.0 percent level."

Chao made the comment after the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday that the country's GDP grew by 4.6 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, following a 4.7 percent rise in the second quarter and faster than the 4.5 percent many institutions had anticipated.

Economic activity picked up in September after softening in July and August, with industrial output up 5.4 percent year-on-year in September, compared with 4.5 percent in August, marking the first acceleration in five months.

"In September, most of the indicators in production and demand improved while market expectations were boosted," said Sheng Laiyun, deputy head of the NBS.

According to the bureau, fixed-asset investment grew 3.4 percent compared with a year earlier during the first nine months, the same as the January-August period, breaking a five-month slowdown. Retail sales grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in September, significantly up from the 2.1 percent growth in August.

"We believe the economy will continue to stabilize and maintain a recovery trend in the fourth quarter," Sheng said. "We are fully confident in achieving the preset annual growth target."

In the first three quarters, China's GDP grew 4.8 percent after 5 percent growth in the first half, with an "around 5 percent" growth target for the full year.

Since the end of September, the Chinese government has eased monetary and property policies, increased investment spending in the fourth quarter and vowed to replace local government hidden debt on a large scale, sending a policy shift signal that buoyed investor expectations.

On Friday, Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, the country's central bank, further pledged to implement the third cut to the reserve requirement ratio — the proportion of deposits banks must keep as reserves — this year while kicking off the implementation of two policy tools directly supporting the capital market.

The A-share market reacted positively, with the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index closing up 2.91 percent at 3,261.56 points while the Shenzhen, Guangdong province-based ChiNext Index, China's NASDAQ-style board of growth enterprises, ended up 7.95 percent.

Feng Jianlin, chief economist at Beijing FOST Economic Consulting Co, said the central bank is likely to implement the cut — of 0.25 or 0.5 percentage point, according to Pan — in November to accommodate the additional issuance of government bonds as the country may increase the local government debt ceiling by 5 trillion yuan ($704 billion) for debt swap purposes and might approve additional central government deficits.

The latest government property sector stabilization policies will also help boost growth in the fourth quarter, as another 1.8 trillion yuan in loans to real estate developers via the "white list" system is expected to be approved, Feng said.

Upon the improving data and incremental policy support, Chang Haizhong, executive director of corporates at Fitch Bohua, said that the rating agency hiked its forecast for China's full-year growth to 4.9 percent from 4.8 percent earlier.

Nevertheless, Chang said the growth in per capita consumption spending slowed by 1.5 percentage points from a quarter earlier to 3.5 percent in the third quarter, indicating tepid consumer confidence.

"Future policies will need to continue to sharpen their focus on boosting consumer confidence," Chang said.

Apart from beefing up stimulus to address insufficient domestic demand, Zhang Yansheng, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, said China should also advance reforms to address medium-term structural challenges facing the real estate market, bulk consumption and the fiscal relationship between the central and local governments.