China's success can lead climate battle, say experts

The year 2024 was marked by unprecedented climate challenges, with record-breaking heat and increasingly severe weather events becoming the new norm. Climate change, a topic that has dominated global headlines for years, has become more of a reality, rather than an impending crisis.

In early December, the Copernicus Climate Change Service announced that 2024 was almost certain to be the hottest year on record, surpassing records dating back to 1940. Last year was also set to be the first one in which the global average temperature exceeded the 1.5 C limit above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold established by the Paris Agreement.

The agreement aims for "keeping a global temperature rise this century well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius".

Teng Fei, deputy director of Tsinghua University's Institute of Energy, Environment, and Economy, said that while this does not indicate a breach of the Paris Agreement — since the temperature target is based on a long-term average — it does highlight a worrying warming trend. "From now on, each year might be the hottest on record, but also the coolest we'll see in the future," Teng said.

This year has also seen a series of devastating extreme weather events, including wildfires in Canada and the Amazon, heat waves in France, Mali, and Mexico, fatal floods in Spain, Nepal, and Sudan, and destructive cyclones in the United States and Southeast Africa.

According to a study published in November by Carbon Brief, a United Kingdom-based climate website, 74 percent of nearly 750 extreme weather events and trends were made more likely or severe due to climate change. Some events were deemed virtually impossible without human influence on global temperatures.

Studies on attributing extreme weather events confirm that human-caused climate change significantly impacts the frequency, severity, and likelihood of these events.

"More than half the weather and climate disaster losses in China can be attributed to climate change," Teng said.

"As temperatures rise, human-induced climate change will increasingly contribute to extreme weather. Both the frequency and intensity of these events will grow as climate change worsens."

Despite the growing evidence of climate change's impact, global efforts to combat it remain insufficient. Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs, said despite a controlled growth rate, global emissions are still rising.

According to the 2024 Global Carbon Budget report by the Global Carbon Project, a UK-based science team, carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and cement were projected to increase by 0.8 percent last year, reaching a record 37.4 billion metric tons. At this rate, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5 C will be exhausted in six years.

Fractured consensus

The need for more ambitious and swift climate action is clear, yet global efforts to unite for the health of the planet are faltering.

At the COP29 conference, in Baku, Azerbaijan, in November, a contentious climate finance deal was reached, with wealthy nations agreeing to provide at least $300 billion annually by 2035 to help poorer countries transition to clean energy and prepare for severe climate impacts. However, many developing countries expressed deep disappointment with the deal, arguing the funding falls far short of the $1.3 trillion that experts believe is needed.

Taking the floor just after the deal was approved, Nigeria's representative Nkiruka Maduekwe dismissed the funding on offer as a "joke", suggesting it would undermine national climate plans due in February.

According to Article 9 of the Paris Agreement, developed countries are obligated to provide financial resources to assist developing countries. As the primary contributors to historical carbon emissions, developed countries have both a moral responsibility and an international duty under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Paris Agreement to help developing countries address climate change.

"The Paris Agreement established a political balance in which developing countries committed to more ambitious emission reduction targets, while developed countries would support them due to their limited resources and development needs. Research shows that trillions of dollars are needed globally to meet the 1.5 C or 2 C climate goals. In this context, the $300 billion pledged by developed countries is highly inadequate," Teng said.

"The $300 billion proposed by developed countries, far below the necessary amount, effectively shifts the burden cost of emission reductions and transition onto developing countries. Consequently, developing countries reject this deal as it is unfair," he said.

The track record of developed countries in fulfilling their financial commitments is shaky. In 2009 at COP 15 in Copenhagen, developed nations pledged $100 billion a year by 2020 for climate action in developing countries, a promise only fulfilled in 2022. This history casts doubt on the achievability of the new $300 billion goal.

Teng also pointed out that much of the previous $100 billion came from multilateral development banks, with only about 30 percent being grants, and the rest loans. Developing countries, already burdened with debt issues, are wary of increasing their financial liabilities.

Frustrated by the stuttering progress made at global negotiations, some developing nations have turned to legal action as an alternative to tackle the climate crisis.

In December, the International Court of Justice held a series of historic hearings to form a legal framework on the responsibilities of countries in addressing climate change and the consequences for those damaging the environment.

From Dec 2 to 13, the ICJ heard views from 99 countries and over a dozen intergovernmental organizations, making it the largest case the court has accepted in its nearly 80-year history.

"We find ourselves on the front lines of a crisis we did not create, a crisis that threatens our very existence," Ralph Regenvanu, Vanuatu's special envoy for climate change and the environment, told the court. He said that there is an urgent need for a response to climate change rooted in international law, rather than politics.

Vanuatu is one of the small island states that have spearheaded the effort to get the court to give an advisory opinion, which is expected to be delivered in 2025.

The ICJ's advisory opinions will be crucial for future global litigation, said Ma from the Institute of Public and Environmental Affairs.

"Although the ICJ's advisory opinions are not legally binding and cannot directly compel wealthy countries to act, the ICJ can lay down a legal precedent that could be cited in future climate-related legislation and litigation," he said.

"In the future, we may see more climate change-driven lawsuits as climate change worsens, and the differences between developed and developing countries, as well as among various interest groups, become more pronounced.

"Negotiations have been tough, with some countries even withdrawing to avoid responsibility. Given this, some nations, especially island states, are looking for new ways to push forward on climate action by clarifying legal responsibilities for addressing climate change," Ma added.

Overall, global climate governance is now at a crisis point, said Teng. "The political compromise achieved in the Paris Agreement is facing significant challenges due to the higher-than-expected difficulties and funding needs. The global economic downturn and shifting political climates further complicate the situation, with green transitions disrupting existing economic, and social structures."

Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, echoed Teng's concerns, noting that the return of Donald Trump to the White House could make global climate governance more challenging than in recent years. Trump, who has repeatedly called climate change a "hoax" may weaken the climate commitments of the world's largest economy and potentially withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement again.

The potential withdrawal of the US poses a significant challenge to other developed nations, said Ma. "If the US, as the largest historical emitter, pulls out and sidesteps the agreement's commitments, other developed nations might have to step up with additional funding, which would be quite a tough task considering their current economic situation."

Finding a solution

Despite the grim outlook, experts believe there is still a way out of the crisis.

Teng emphasized that the key to tackling climate change is to further lower the costs of renewable energy technologies through global cooperation, making them bankable for commercial investors.

A white paper titled "China's Energy Transition" released in August by China's State Council Information Office cited data from the International Renewable Energy Agency saying that over the past decade, the average cost per kilowatt-hour of global wind power projects has decreased by more than 60 percent, and photovoltaic power projects by more than 80 percent.

The reductions are largely attributable to China's efforts, the white paper said. China-made PV modules and wind power equipment have enabled the widespread economic use of renewable energy in an increasing number of countries, it said.

To truly address climate change, this trend needs to continue, ensuring that renewable energy is affordable and profitable for developing countries, Teng said.

"Trade wars and tariffs initiated by the EU (European Union) and the US actually hinder global efforts to reduce emissions — such approaches disrupt the global industrial chain and may even increase the global cost of renewable energy," he said.

Li said the economic benefits of a green economy can be the key driver for countries to advance their climate agendas.

"Balancing economic development and climate action is a challenge faced by both developing and developed countries. Particularly for developing nations, it's essential for them to identify economic growth opportunities in the green transition," said Li.

"China serves as a successful example in this aspect. The growth of China's renewable energy and low-carbon industries in recent years has significantly boosted its macroeconomic development. This demonstrates that climate action can benefit a country's economic interests, a reality China has effectively shown in recent years."

The future of global climate efforts depends on finding this balance and fostering international cooperation to achieve sustainable progress, he concluded.

Agencies contributed to the story.