Support for absolute win slumps even in Ukraine

Willingness to support Ukraine "until it wins" has declined sharply across Western Europe, while more than half of Ukrainians now favor a quick, negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict after it has dragged on for three years, two recent polls have found.

According to a poll in December by YouGov, a London-based global public opinion and data firm, support for backing Ukraine until victory has slumped in all seven European countries surveyed.

When asked about their preferred resolution to the conflict, more respondents in Germany, France, Italy and Spain favored a negotiated settlement over supporting Ukraine until Russia withdraws — even if that meant prolonging the conflict.

The results — Germany, 45 percent favored negotiations versus 28 percent for continued support; France, 43 percent versus 23 percent; and Spain 46 percent versus 25 percent — marked a flip in public opinion compared with the response to the same question asked in February 2023, one year after the conflict began.

Few in Western European countries believed that either Ukraine or Russia would win soon, with most thinking that both countries would either continue fighting or come to a peace agreement through negotiations, according to YouGov's survey.

Even in countries where more people preferred supporting Ukraine until it won, enthusiasm had waned. In the United Kingdom, support dropped from 53 to 36 percent; in Denmark, from 56 to 40 percent; and in Sweden, from 63 to 50 percent.

The fatigue over prolonged conflict also grew in Ukraine. A Gallup poll published in November showed that, for the first time, a 52 percent majority of Ukrainians favored negotiating an end to the conflict as soon as possible.

This contrasts with a drop in those who favored continuing the fight until victory, from 73 percent in the early months of the conflict to 38 percent.

Support for continuing the fight has declined across Ukraine, with the sharpest slump in areas far from the front lines. In Kyiv, support fell by 39 percentage points, while in the western regions, it dropped by 40 percentage points.

In the conflict-heavy eastern and southern Ukraine, backing for continued fighting fell below 50 percent, down from 63 percent and 61 percent in 2022, respectively.

Among people in Ukraine who continued to support the fight until victory, the Gallup survey showed evidence that their definition of victory appears to be shifting: the percentage of people who believe that victory means regaining all territory lost since 2014, including Crimea, has dropped from more than 90 percent to 81 percent.

Zhu Xue'er contributed to this story.