Balance expected from new Canada PM

The new Canadian prime minister is expected to take a strong stance against US tariffs while seeking diplomatic compromises, according to experts.

In Prime Minister Mark Carney's first speech after winning the Liberal Party leadership contest, he called the United States a "country we can no longer trust" and had a message for President Donald Trump.

"America is not Canada, and Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form," Carney said.

Carney received 86 percent, or 131,764 votes of the 151,899 cast by the nearly 400,000 Liberal Party members who registered to participate in the leadership election.

Carney, 59, is expected to face Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre, 45, in the next nationwide election, which is officially scheduled for Oct 20 but could be held as soon as April 28 or May 5.

The prime minister said he'll keep Canada's counter-tariffs in place until all of Trump's tariffs are lifted.

John J. Kirton, professor of political science at the University of Toronto, said that approach has helped unify Canada's Liberal Party, positioning Carney as a leader with stronger national support than his predecessor, Justin Trudeau.

Kirton said that Carney's extensive economic background — a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England — makes him suited to navigate the challenges, though significant hurdles remain.

"The first thing he has to do is use his intimate contacts on Wall Street," Kirton told China Daily. "He needs to tell the great giants of Wall Street to inform Trump and his treasury secretary that these tariffs are really killing the financial heart of the US economy," he said.

He said that continued trade disputes could have severe consequences.

"Unless Trump stops and turns around, the US could even face another financial crisis, similar to what happened when Lehman Brothers collapsed and triggered the Great Recession," Kirton said.

Ontario Premier Doug Ford said on Tuesday that the province would suspend its 25 percent surcharge on electricity exports to three US states after Trump floated additional duties on Canadian aluminum, steel, electricity and vehicles.

Ford said he had a productive conversation with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Tuesday.

"Secretary Lutnick agreed to officially meet with Premier Ford in Washington on Thursday, March 13, alongside the United States Trade Representative, to discuss a renewed USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement] ahead of the April 2 reciprocal tariff deadline," the two officials said in a joint statement posted on X. "In response, Ontario agreed to suspend its 25 percent surcharge on exports of electricity to Michigan, New York and Minnesota."

Kirton said he believes negotiating with the US will be a delicate task. "The biggest challenge is that Trump's policies change day by day," he said.

Kirton pointed to past instances where American tariffs disrupted supply chains, particularly in the auto industry, leading major CEOs to pressure the US administration into temporary concessions.

Kirton expected a similar pattern moving forward. "The three big auto industry CEOs went to Trump and said, 'We're going to be killed with these tariffs,'" he said.

Kirton said he believes that Carney will push back strongly against US trade policies while also looking for pragmatic solutions.

"If Carney stands next to leaders like Alberta Premier Danielle Smith and says, 'If we have to impose an export tax on our oil to the US, we will,' he has the constitutional power to do it," Kirton said.

Carney will also need to manage Canada's relationship with China.

"We need a prosperous China — one that continues to import from the G7 and the broader global economy," Kirton said.

He also noted the importance of maintaining access to China's technology and raw materials.

"If we want to tackle the only genuinely existential threat — climate change — we need to be able to import low-cost renewable energy technology from China, such as solar panels and wind turbines," he said.

While tensions between Canada and China have led to reciprocal tariffs, Kirton remains cautiously optimistic about relations.

"We have to start by de-escalating trade wars, both between Canada and China and between the US and China," he said.

Ron Stagg, professor emeritus of history at Toronto Metropolitan University, sees Carney adopting a firm stance against US tariffs while balancing economic diplomacy.

"Carney has said that Canada will match all tariffs imposed on Canadian goods, which is very much what the vast majority of Canadians want now.

But, of course, many do not fully realize the consequences of such a policy," he told China Daily.

"Given what the Canadian people are expecting of him, he will be confrontational. But, based on his background, he will also be looking for ways to smooth out relations to reduce the tariff war," he said.

"He would want to re-establish the kind of trade relationship Canada has had with the US up to this point, while trying to get businesses, with government help, to seek new markets," he said.

However, Stagg maintained that this shift could be difficult. "Businesses are reluctant to take advantage of trade ties with Europe and Asia when trading across the border is so much easier."

He pointed to Trump's broad interpretation of security provisions affecting trade, as well as potential threats to key industries such as automotive and dairy.

"If he waits until the (USMCA) agreement is up for renewal in 2026 and refuses to accept any compromises with Canada, this too will be a major challenge."

While Carney has positioned himself as a firm negotiator, Stagg said he believes Carney's instincts will lean toward compromise.

"He is by nature a middle-of-the-road person, and we can expect that he will try to move away from confrontation and towards an amicable settlement," he said.

"Try is the key word. Politically, Carney cannot be seen by Trump, or by the Canadian public, to show any signs of what might be termed weakness." he said.

Stagg said that Carney's approach to China is expected to be more measured than his US strategy.

"Canadian relations with China, while not as confrontational as those with the United States, are complicated by security and trade concerns," he said.

"I expect that Canada under Carney will pursue this approach, despite Chinese tariffs on Canadian agricultural goods," Stagg said. "Negotiations rather than another trade war."

gaoyang@chinadailyusa.com