Europe must show will for strategic autonomy

The Paris Defense and Strategy Forum 2025, held on Tuesday, discussed what contributions European countries will be willing to make for Ukraine's security if a ceasefire agreement is reached between Ukraine and Russia.

The timing of this meeting reflects Europe's intent to address the changing transatlantic landscape from a military perspective, seeking to intervene in the resolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict not only through diplomacy but also through military means. On the one hand, Europe aims to assert its role as a key player in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict; on the other hand, it seeks to formulate a response mechanism led by Europe through collective discussions that can continue playing a role even if the United States withdraws all its support to Ukraine one day.

In contrast, according to a joint statement issued after the US and Ukrainian delegations concluded their talks in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday evening, Ukraine has agreed to implement a 30-day temporary ceasefire, and the US will resume intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine, while the US and Ukraine have agreed to expedite the conclusion of a comprehensive agreement to develop Ukraine's critical mineral resources.

Divergences between the US and Europe are becoming increasingly apparent. While the US is negotiating with Russia for a ceasefire for its own interest, Europe remains skeptical of Russia and believes that continued support for Ukraine is necessary to pressure Russia for peace.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has, in that sense, provided Europe with a new opportunity to pursue strategic autonomy. In the past, due to limited military and security needs, Europe's strategic autonomy had been primarily focused on economic, investment, and technological domains, while its defense capabilities remained at a low point. However, shifts in US policy have made Europe realize that it can no longer rely on a security backer — or rather, that its backer has turned its focus elsewhere. As a result, Europe must refocus its strategic autonomy on security and defense.

Europeans have also come to understand that peace must be supported by strength. If Europe fails to demonstrate a certain level of strength in the negotiation process or places its hopes on the US' policy changes, it will not be able to realize true strategic autonomy.