Toward a new era in East-West connectivity

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European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will visit Uzbekistan on April 3 and 4 to attend the inaugural Central Asia-European Union Summit. The presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan will also participate in the summit.

The summit provides a crucial opportunity for the EU to demonstrate its geopolitical interest in enhancing bilateral engagement and expanding regional cooperation with Central Asian countries. In the evolving geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, the relationship between Central Asia and the EU is becoming increasingly strategic.

It was announced last year that the G7 countries were ready to invest up to $200 billion in infrastructure projects in Central Asia.

Regional transport cooperation is poised to significantly impact the economy of Europe, Central Asian countries and China, as the trade land bridge between China and Europe, Central Asia, is becoming increasingly vital.

Rail freight volumes between China and Europe, via Central Asia, continue to grow rapidly. In 2024, trains made 19,000 trips, representing a 10 percent increase from the previous year. They transported over 2 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) of cargo, representing a 9 percent increase from the previous year. First launched in 2011 as part of China's Belt and Road Initiative, the service has linked 227 cities across 25 European countries and more than 100 cities in 11 Asian countries. By Dec 3, 2024, more than 11 million TEUs of goods have been transported, with total value exceeding $420 billion.

Beijing is prioritizing this area, with Premier Li Qiang specifically noting in his report to China's top legislature last month that China will "ensure the stable and smooth operation of China-Europe freight trains".

European countries seeking to reduce their dependence on rail transport to China through Russian territory have led the development of a shorter alternative route through Central Asia, known as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route. More commonly known as the Middle Corridor, this is a network of transport routes that follows the ancient Silk Road, extending from China to Europe via Central Asia, the Caspian Sea and the South Caucasus, ultimately reaching Turkiye and the Black Sea. Operational since 2017, the Middle Corridor is a multimodal transport system that relies significantly on existing core rail and port infrastructure.

The volume of freight traffic along the Middle Corridor increased by 63 percent in the first 11 months of 2024, reaching 4.1 million metric tons. Meanwhile, container traffic rose 2.7 times, with shipments from China increasing 25-fold. The World Bank predicts that with the modernization of transport infrastructure, annual rail transport volumes along the Middle Corridor could reach 11 million tons by 2030.

To achieve this, the EU committed 10 billion euros ($10.8 billion) to infrastructure through its Global Gateway initiative and is contemplating increasing its involvement.

Although the EU aims to develop the Middle Corridor, specifically to bypass Russia, it may ultimately end up indirectly enhancing Russia's international connectivity, as it could connect the Middle Corridor to the forthcoming International North-South Transport Corridor, a 7,200-kilometer multimodal transport corridor that combines road, rail and maritime routes via Azerbaijan and Iran.

The Middle Corridor will also facilitate active trade between the countries of Central Asia and the South Caucasus. To maximize the development of the Middle Corridor, the EU could leverage the Middle Corridor on two fronts. The first front is internal, concerning the Central Asian and South Caucasian countries. The second front is external and involves China and Turkiye.

The Middle Corridor would enable China to strengthen its economic ties along the entire route to the West. This will enhance China's economic influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus, promoting regional stability. The corridor not only gives China access to Europe but also to the Middle East. Its development has the potential to reshape the economic and geopolitical landscape of Eurasia, with significant implications for global trade flows and regional power dynamics.

As the natural entry point of the Middle Corridor into Europe, Turkiye stands to benefit from its development. Europe could seize this opportunity to reassure Ankara that Turkiye will continue to play a primary role in the EU's external relations. By doing so, it would secure Turkiye as an ally in the EU's ambitions for the Middle Corridor and foster a partnership with the Central Asian countries.

In addition to the EU's existing commitment to infrastructure, its involvement is anticipated to extend beyond mere connectivity. The Middle Corridor would genuinely flourish if it became a fully integrated economic corridor, incorporating energy and industrial activities along the route, which would add significant value to the regional economy.

The East-West railway lines are set to converge in Central Asia with the North-South railways currently under construction. These railways will connect Russia and Central Asia through Afghanistan, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Iran to the deep-water ports of the Indian Ocean. Consequently, the intersection of the East-West and North-South railway routes in Central Asia will transform the region into a major transportation hub for the entire Eurasian continent.

The China-Europe railway bridge across Central Asia serves as a vital lifeline for all countries along the Great Silk Road. It symbolizes not only the revival of ancient trade routes but also fosters cultural and humanitarian exchanges between the East and the West. This new route will connect people and communities, strengthen cooperation, and open doors to countless opportunities for development and prosperity in the region. Further development of these railways will enable all countries along the legendary Silk Road to trade and collaborate, thereby enhancing the competitiveness of all parties involved.

The author is former prime minister of the Kyrgyz Republic and a distinguished professor at the Belt and Road School at Beijing Normal University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.