Analyst calls for US predictability amid trade uncertainty

Amid trade tensions and policy uncertainty stemming from the tariff war, a China analyst advises Washington to become more predictable to boost global and US economic growth projections.

"We now have a saying — the greatest predictability in the world of today is the unpredictability of the United States," said Victor Zhikai Gao, vice-president of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing-based think tank.

"This is not a high mark or compliment. I think the United States needs to make itself predictable," Gao told China Daily in Washington.

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has rolled out sweeping tariffs, starting with a 10 percent blanket duty on all foreign-made imports. Dozens of countries received a 90-day pause until July, but tariffs on Chinese goods surged to 145 percent.

Last week, the International Monetary Fund, in its latest World Economic Outlook, slashed global and United States economy predictions by 0.5 and 0.9 percentage point from January forecasts, citing the impact of US tariff increases and the retaliatory measures from other countries.

The global lending agency cut its projection for US economic growth from 2.7 percent to 1.8 percent — a downgrade of nearly a full percentage point, the largest of any major economy.

Speaking at a media briefing on Thursday, IMF's Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said, "I want to reiterate my message: Uncertainty is really bad for business, so the sooner this cloud that is hanging over our heads is lifted, the better for prospects for growth."

But US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seemed to view uncertainty in a different light.

On Sunday, a few days before US President Donald Trump reaches the 100-day mark of his presidency, Bessent defended Trump's tariff policy — which has roiled global markets — as a way to create "strategic uncertainty" that gives Washington the upper hand.

"In game theory, it's called strategic uncertainty, so you're not going to tell the person on the other side of the negotiation where you're going to end up," Bessent said on an ABC's news show.

"Nobody is better at creating this leverage than President Trump," the treasury secretary added.

Gao, whose recent comments on US-China relations went viral on the internet, said tricks of surprising or intimidation in talks are unacceptable.

"When you do the negotiation, you cannot basically surprise the other side or intimidate the other side, or in my term, hold a gun at the other side's head," he said.

"Because the other side, China, in this particular case, will have no interest in doing the dialogue," he said.

For this round of the trade war, negotiations and dialogue between Washington and Beijing are needed, but the starting point is that they "fully respect each other", rather than "keep surprising the other side or surprising mankind in the world", Gao said.

Heightened uncertainties and skyrocketing duties on goods worldwide have spread anxiety among executives, affecting their market confidence.

"It's hard enough for firms to think about July right now where they don't know what the reciprocal tariffs are. Try and plan another year down the road. I mean, who knows what it looks like, let alone five years down the road," James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, said in a report on Monday, according to Reuters.

Recent polls conducted before the 100 days of Trump's second term found a significant majority of Americans disapprove of his handling of trade and tariff policies.

A CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted last week, found that support for Trump's tariffs has been declining, from 52 percent in late November when he was elected, to 41 percent, as a rising number of Americans say the administration is focusing too much on the issue.

Additionally, fewer now believe Trump has a clear plan for tariffs and trade, and overall, more Americans continue to say his policies are making them financially worse off.

Similarly, a New York Times/Siena College poll released Friday found that half of registered US voters said they felt Trump had made the economy worse since he took office; 27 percent said the economy was about the same, with 1 in 5 saying he had made it better.

Among more than 300 economists surveyed in a Reuters/Ipsos Poll from April 1 through April 28, 92 percent viewed the tariffs negatively, with none citing a positive effect.

More than 60 percent of respondents believe there is a high or very high risk of recession this year due to the tariffs.

On Monday morning, Trump took to Truth, his social media platform, to blast polls showing his approval rating falling, claiming that a poll by The New York Times and others by ABC News, The Washington Post and Ipsos did not survey enough of his voters.

huanxinzhao@chinadailyusa.com