EU set to undershoot 2030 climate target by 1 percentage point

BRUSSELS - The European Union is on track to miss its legally binding 55 percent greenhouse-gas reduction target for 2030 by roughly one percentage point, the European Commission said on Wednesday.

In an assessment of the final National Energy and Climate Plans (NECPs) submitted by member states, the Commission found that existing and planned measures would cut net EU emissions by approximately 54 percent below 1990 levels by 2030, compared with the 55 percent reduction enshrined in the European Climate Law.

Under that law, the bloc aims to become climate-neutral by 2050, with an interim goal of at least a 55 percent emissions cut by 2030.

Although member states have raised their ambitions, the Commission said shortfalls persist across key sectors.

The report highlights that while renewable-energy and energy-efficiency contributions now closely align with the bloc's 42.5 percent and 11.7 percent 2030 targets, respectively, distortions remain across sectors.

Effort Sharing Regulation sectors, including transport, buildings and agriculture, are forecast to deliver a 38 percent emissions cut versus 2005 levels, short of the 40 percent target.

The assessment also highlighted a 45 to 60 million tonne shortfall in carbon sinks for land use, land-use change and forestry. Under EU rules, carbon sinks must deliver an extra net removal of 42 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 compared with the 2016-2018 average, meaning the current gap represents 100 to 140 percent of that target.

Five out of 23 national plans still fall short on effort-sharing obligations, and only nine governments expect to meet their land-use targets, the report said. It urged member states to deploy agricultural funds and state-aid flexibilities to boost carbon sinks.

The Commission has called on Belgium, Estonia and Poland to submit their overdue final NECPs immediately and stressed that "setting a clear 2040 climate target now will be key to steer actions and investments post-2030".