Inflation rose in June to its highest level since February

Inflation rose in June to its highest level since February as fallout from President Donald Trump's tariffs began to bite, said economists and shoppers faced with higher prices on furniture, clothing and appliances.

The consumer price index rose 2.7 percent in June compared to a year ago, figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed. That was up from an annual pace of 2.4 percent in May. Overall consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in June, a roughly 3.5 annualized rate. Until now, inflation had remained low, economists said.

"While inflation had not jumped [until now], partially empty shelves are becoming increasingly common across the country. High tariffs are needlessly raising costs," Thomas Fullerton, an American economist and professor of economics and finance at the University of Texas at El Paso, told China Daily.

The rise in inflation comes after Trump vowed last year to lower prices on his first day back in office.

In remarks to reporters while leaving for a trip to Pennsylvania on Tuesday, the president continued to champion tariffs for bringing money and business into the United States.

However, economists and retail watchdogs have warned for over a year that the levies could force American households to spend more, especially if businesses raise their prices. Many large retailers from Costco to Walmart said that they are considering price hikes.

"This was the first monthly decline since February, and spending was down across almost all sectors … the economy is gradually slowing and there has been an impact on the psyche of consumers," National Retail Federation President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement about slower retail sales last month.

"June's numbers indicate that prolonged uncertainty surrounding the economy, tariffs and trade policy could be pushing consumers to adopt a 'wait-and-see' approach with their household budgets," Shay added.

The data released on Tuesday showed that core inflation (excluding food and energy) was up 2.9 percent in June compared to the same period in 2024. From May to June, core inflation climbed 0.2 percent.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the fact that core inflation had increased less than expected, "proves that President Trump is stabilizing inflation."

However, this year the on-again, off-again tariffs placed on key trading partners such as China, Canada and Mexico have posed challenges for businesses.

The current tariffs include 10 percent on most countries' imports along with 30 percent on imports from China.

Last week Trump said that the European Union and Mexico could face additional levies of 30 percent on imports into the US from Aug 1, up from the prior 10 percent and 25 percent rates, respectively. Trump also announced that he would hit Mexico with 17 percent levies on its tomatoes this month.

On Monday, the European Union warned it may issue countermeasures if no agreement is reached with the US.

On July 10, the president threatened to raise tariffs on Canadian imports from 25 percent to 35 percent.

Brazil could also face a 50 percent tax. This would be significant for American consumers as Brazil produces coffee and orange juice.

The cost of oranges increased 3.5 percent from May to June, and were 3.4 percent higher than in 2024, data showed on Tuesday.

Consumer spending is a vital indicator of the health of the economy, as it represents at least two-thirds of all economic activity.

"Today's report showed that tariffs are beginning to bite," Omair Sharif, head of Inflation Insights, told Reuters.

Grocery prices rose 0.3 percent last month and are up 2.4 percent from 2024, The Associated Press reported.

Last month, consumers paid higher prices for toys, clothes, shoes, sporting goods and audio equipment, as many are imported, especially from China.

From May to June, gas prices rose 1 percent and the cost of appliances climbed for the third month in a row.

Jonathan Gold, vice-president of supply chain and customs policy at the National Retail Federation, told China Daily that the ongoing result of tariffs "for consumers could be increased prices, especially at small retailers."

However, the White House shot down the idea that tariffs have raised consumer prices.

Instead, it cited the fact that the cost of new cars was down month-over-month, although there is a 25 percent tariff on autos and a 50 percent tariff on steel and aluminum. It added that clothing prices were lower than earlier this year.

Some headway has also been made by the Trump administration to lessen the trade war. China, the United Kingdom and Vietnam have inked trade deals, but many other countries have not. At least 14 countries received letters earlier this month aimed at hastening trade negotiations by Aug 1.

Trump has also bullishly urged Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to cut interest rates. But Powell has held off, saying that he would have done so already if not for the tariffs. He wants to examine how the economy copes with the tariffs first.

"He's way late. That's why I call him 'too late.' Jerome Powell is too late," Trump told reporters about Powell on July 15. "Interest rates should be coming down. We have a very, very successful country. We should have the lowest interest rate anywhere in the world. And we don't. Jerome Powell has done a terrible job. And frankly, I don't think he could do worse. He's called everything wrong."

belindarobinson@chinadailyusa.com