Japan's ruling coalition faces tight election test

People in Japan were anxiously waiting for the results of Sunday's 27th House of Councillors election, with 522 candidates vying for seats in a closely watched contest between the ruling coalition and opposition parties.

The House of Councillors, the upper chamber of Japan's National Diet, comprises 248 members who serve six-year terms. Elections are held every three years to renew half of the seats. In this cycle, 125 seats are being contested, including one to fill a vacancy.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its junior coalition partner Komeito currently hold 75 seats that are not up for reelection. To maintain a majority in the 248-seat chamber, they need to win at least 50 more seats.

Data released by the Japanese government on Saturday showed that more than 21.45 million people had cast early ballots as of Friday, setting a record for advance voting in an upper house election.

Sunday's vote is widely seen by domestic media as a critical test of the administration's political stability and ability to govern effectively.

Japan's ruling coalition is unlikely to keep its majority in the election, public broadcaster NHK projected, citing its exit poll.

Ukeru Magosaki, director of the East Asian Community Institute and a former senior official at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan, told China Daily that while the target of the ruling coalition was not difficult in itself, "achieving it is now in doubt".

He pointed to political funding scandals involving LDP lawmakers and what he described as the party's lack of decisive action in addressing them. In addition, rising prices have made life more difficult for ordinary citizens, he said.

Inflation has been a key focus this time, with the price of rice doubling since last year. Opposition parties promised tax cuts, while the ruling government is opting for fiscal restraint and welfare maintenance.

A public opinion poll conducted in June by Nikkei and TV Tokyo found that the approval rating for Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's Cabinet stood at 37 percent, up three points from the previous month but notably lower than the 51 percent when he took office in October. The disapproval rating stood at 57 percent.

In terms of party preference, 29 percent of respondents said they supported the LDP in the upper house election, up three percentage points from the previous month. The Constitutional Democratic Party and the Democratic Party for the People each received 12 percent, placing them jointly in second place. Komeito, the LDP's coalition partner, was backed by 5 percent, while 12 percent of respondents were undecided.

If the ruling coalition fails to retain its majority, the legislative process could become more complex and time-consuming. In that case, the government may be forced to broaden its coalition, seek cooperation from opposition parties on individual bills, or return legislation rejected by the upper house to the lower house for final approval.

Legislation generally requires approval by majorities in both houses, with a few exceptions including budgets.

In the October 2024 general election, the ruling bloc lost its majority in the House of Representatives, the more powerful lower chamber of the Diet. Ishiba was subsequently forced to form Japan's first minority government in more than three decades.

Joseph Kraft of Rorschach Advisory in Tokyo told the Japan Times that even with heavy losses in the election, the LDP is unlikely to opt for a leadership change at a pivotal moment in talks on tariffs that are hammering key industries such as automotive manufacturing.