After wave of panic, impact of US visa hike still unclear

Impact unclear

Ed Hirs, a lecturer in the Department of Economics at the University of Houston, told China Daily that the impact of the new fee remains to be seen.

"In the grand scheme of things, [H-1B holders are] not a very large number of workers. Typically, these workers are not the ones doing the cutting-edge research. I'm not certain that the forecast or statements that it's going to cut US innovation are accurate. It's really just too early to tell," Hirs said.

He is also doubtful that the fee will encourage more US citizens into these positions.

"Those companies hire an awful lot of H-1B visa workers. And if they think it is economical, they will go ahead and pay $100,000 fee. And nothing will change."

Hirs said the math indicates that the companies would continue with H-1B visas and pay the higher fee "because it would still be less expensive than hiring US citizens".

He also pointed out that many tech jobs can be done outside the US.

"People can sit in China and do work in the US. They can sit in India or Pakistan and do work in the US. The location is not as important to getting the job done now," Hirs said.

Big Tech companies are not only more capable of paying $100,000 for more affordable labor, but are also more likely to get fee exemptions based on "national interest".

Ultimately, the fee will hurt startups harder, some commentators predicted.

"For a startup, it's a death sentence. It makes hiring the best global talent impossible," one Reddit comment said. "This isn't an immigration policy, it's a massive gift to the giants, giving them a government-enforced moat to monopolize talent. It's designed to make sure the next Google can never be built."

Some worried that the policy won't help US citizens at all.

"End goal is to hire Americans for these jobs based in America. Unfortunately, such jobs will end up overseas and boost India's economy," said another Reddit comment.