Robust demand forecast to continue into Q4

China's auto market is expected to maintain its growth trajectory through the fourth quarter as strong demand, policy changes, and steady production underpin momentum for both traditional and new energy vehicle makers.

"During the National Day holiday, many provinces and cities hosted auto shows, and manufacturers have been offering supportive incentives," said Lang Xuehong, deputy secretary-general of the China Automobile Dealers Association.

Lang said this year's market dynamics are unique. Starting 2026, China will resume its purchase tax on new energy vehicles, although it will stand at 5 percent of a car's price, half of the rate for gasoline vehicles.

"Under these circumstances, demand in the fourth quarter will remain strong, leading to a noticeable year-end surge," Lang said.

Industry data show that China's auto market has maintained steady growth so far this year, with NEV penetration remaining at a high level.

A total of 21.12 million vehicles were delivered from January to August, up 12.6 percent year-on-year, according to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

Of them 9.62 million were new energy vehicles, whose growth hit 36.7 percent from the same period of 2024. NEVs accounted for 45.5 percent of total vehicle deliveries, said the CAAM.

The country's top automakers are marching toward annual sales targets at different speeds. BYD and SAIC Motor formed the industry's leading group, each surpassing 3 million units in cumulative sales from January to September.

BYD remained the clear leader with 3.26 million units, reaching 71 percent of its full-year target of 4.6 million. SAIC's sales totaled 3.19 million units, also completing 71 percent of its goal, supported by its dual-track strategy in both internal combustion and electric vehicles.

In September, SAIC delivered over 440,000 units, up 40.4 percent year-on-year. It was also the ninth month that saw the carmaker's sales grow compared with 2024.

Geely delivered 2.17 million units in the first three quarters, achieving 72 percent of its annual goal — the highest rate among China's top 10 carmakers.

FAW and Changan followed with 2.38 million and 2.07 million units, reaching 69 percent of their yearly targets, respectively.

Chery delivered 2.01 million units, 62 percent of its 2025 goal, while GAC Group reported 1.49 million, 65 percent of its 2.3 million sales target for this year.

The country's emerging NEV makers are reporting rapid growth as well. Nio delivered over 34,000 units in September, its best-ever monthly figure, up 64 percent year-on-year.

Nio is targeting deliveries of 50,000 units per month in the fourth quarter — nearly double its second-quarter volumes — as its new multibrand strategy takes shape.

Orders for Nio's new Onvo L90 SUV, launched in late July, have exceeded expectations, with first-month deliveries reaching a record 10,575 units.

Nio is seeing its production ramping up to 15,000 units of the Onvo L90 in October and the new ES8 SUV in December — supporting Nio's fourth-quarter target of around 150,000 vehicles.

XPeng delivered over 41,000 units in September, up 95 percent from the same month of 2024. They brought its deliveries in the first nine months to over 313,000 units, almost 90 percent of its sales target for 2025.

With robust demand, a high base of NEV adoption, and automakers pushing for year-end deliveries, China's auto market is to finish the year on a strong note. It sets the stage for 2026, even as incentives begin to taper off, said analysts.

lifusheng@chinadaily.com.cn