Nation to maintain lead in EV adoption

China is set to maintain its commanding lead in global electric vehicle (EV) adoption for at least the next 15 years, according to the recently released bp Energy Outlook 2025 report.

This sustained dominance positions China as a key architect of the ongoing energy transition and a major force in shaping future global energy demand, it said.

The nation's current impact on the EV market is already profound. China accounts for more than half of all electric vehicle sales worldwide, underscoring its pivotal role in this rapidly expanding sector, said Spencer Dale, chief economist at bp.

This leadership is projected to deepen significantly over the coming decade, he said.

According to the report, by 2035, approximately 45 percent of all vehicle kilometers traveled in China will be electrically powered, markedly surpassing projections for other major economies.

Developed European nations are expected to see around 35 percent of their vehicle mileage from electricity, while the United States is forecast to be below 20 percent, it said.

However, the energy outlook presents a complex picture, particularly within industrial sectors. The petrochemical industry, for instance, is projected to see a continued increase in oil consumption globally, with demand for oil as feedstock predicted to reach approximately 20 million barrels per day by 2035.

Growth is primarily driven by expanding industrial activity in China and the Middle East, it said.

The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation has said that Chinese oil refiners and petrochemical companies, including State-owned oil giant China Petroleum and Chemical Corp, have been making strides in the global market with technological advances and advantages in supply chains, eyeing greater market share from growing demand for energy transition technologies.

The global chemical industry is especially in need of advanced products, particularly new chemical materials and high-end fine chemicals, said Fu Xiangsheng, vice-president of the association.

Dale believes China's efforts in transitioning to cleaner power generation are equally impactful. Over the past five years, the country has been the single largest contributor to the global surge in renewable electricity, he said.

China alone has accounted for more than half of all new wind and solar power capacity installed worldwide during this period. This massive deployment underscores its commitment to green energy sources.

Furthermore, the outlook highlights China's leadership in scaling back fossil fuel reliance elsewhere, and expects the country to lead the global decline in coal production.

By 2050, China is expected to be responsible for approximately 85 percent of the total reduction in global coal output. This strategic shift away from coal signals a comprehensive national decarbonization effort across its energy landscape, it said.

China is not merely a participant but a driving force in the global energy shift, said Dale.

Its aggressive pursuit of EV adoption, vast investment in renewables, and strategic coal reduction are profoundly shaping the future of global energy markets and environmental goals for decades to come, he said.

zhengxin@chinadaily.com.cn