Explainer: What does China's 2035 per capita GDP goal of 'mid-level developed country' status mean

BEIJING -- As China maps out its development priorities for the next five years, it has once again highlighted a central benchmark for modernization, namely achieving a per capita GDP on par with that of a "mid-level developed country" by 2035.

This goal, along with targets to strengthen the economy, advance science and technology, and bolster national defense and China's global influence, was underscored in the Party leadership's recommendations for formulating China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30).

To grasp China's next steps toward its milestone objective of "basically achieving socialist modernization" by 2035, one must first ask: What does it mean to achieve "mid-level developed country" status?

While there is no universally accepted definition of a "mid-level developed country," international institutions provide useful reference points.

The International Monetary Fund, for instance, listed 39 developed economies in 2020, most with per capita GDPs above $20,000.

There is now a broad consensus that the 2020 standard should serve as the baseline for measuring progress toward mid-level developed status.

This benchmark envisions China's per capita GDP in 2035 effectively doubling its 2020 level at constant prices.

That means China's economy would need to grow at an average annual rate of about 4.17 percent from 2026 to 2035, covering the 15th and 16th Five-Year Plan periods.

Given the country's ample resource supplies, technological advances and institutional innovation, economists believe such growth is achievable.

China has long been a major engine of global economic growth. Over the past five years, despite headwinds such as the COVID-19 pandemic and shocks to global trade, China's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of about 5.5 percent.

In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent year on year. By the end of the year, the country's total economic output is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan (about $19.76 trillion).

Economists argue that sustaining an average GDP growth rate of over 4.17 percent over the next decade will hinge on China's continued pursuit of high-quality development, powered by reform and innovation, and supported by efforts to remove institutional and systemic barriers that constrain progress.

Together, these forces are expected to sustain steady and healthy economic growth for China in the years ahead.