Meaningful engagement

China's 15th Five-Year Plan points to high-quality development cooperation with Global South partners

As the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China formulated its recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for National Economic and Social Development, the strategic context is especially important not just for China itself but for many states of the Global South that partner with it. The recent fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October highlighted the plan's role as a "key link" between the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) and China's long-term goal of socialist modernization by 2035.

The 14th Five-Year Plan period saw China achieve significant socioeconomic progress amid challenging global conditions, including technological innovation, infrastructure expansion and deepening international cooperation.

One key area is innovation-driven growth. Over the past five years, innovation and core technologies such as artificial intelligence have been placed at the heart of China's modernization drive. During this period, China delivered major accomplishments such as the Tiangong space station, lunar soil return missions and the operation of fourth-generation nuclear power plants.

China's digital infrastructure leads globally in scale and technology. By the end of June, the total number of 5G base stations had increased fivefold compared to 2020, reaching 4.55 million; the number of gigabit broadband users surged 34-fold to 226 million. China's total computing power ranks second globally, significantly boosting its economic and social development. China has achieved a holistic and systematic leap in its overall AI capabilities, holding 60 percent of global AI patents, with breakthroughs continuously emerging in areas such as humanoid robots and smart terminals. In 2024, China's AI industry exceeded 900 billion yuan ($126.45 billion), representing a 24 percent year-on-year increase. By the end of 2024, over 10,000 smart factories had been built, covering over 80 percent of major manufacturing sectors. Smart homes and wearable devices have become new consumer trends.

Another key dimension is opening-up and external cooperation. Despite rising global protectionism, China has emphasized high-standard opening-up, maintaining cooperation with partners under frameworks such as the Belt and Road Initiative. Social and livelihood improvements have also advanced notably. For example, China reported over 60 million new urban jobs and the world's largest social security coverage.

From the Global South perspective, these achievements matter. They show that China has managed to deliver modernization under pressure. Its development model remains relevant for many other developing countries. The 14th Five-Year Plan period thus strengthened China's credentials as not simply a large power, but a co-development actor.

While full details of the 15th Five-Year Plan will not be formally approved until 2026, key guiding principles have already been made public: upholding the Party's overall leadership; putting the people first; pursuing high-quality development; comprehensively deepening reform; promoting the interplay between an efficient market and a well-functioning government; and ensuring both development and security, according to the communiqué of the fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee that underscored the guiding principles for economic and social development during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.

Technology and self-reliance have emerged as core themes. China is focusing on semiconductors, AI, the space industry and advanced manufacturing, all in response to external pressures such as export controls and US tariff measures. There is also a clear shift toward domestic consumption, healthcare and demographic issues, particularly the aging population, as fundamental factors.

For the Global South, the 15th Five-Year Plan will signal China's continued willingness to engage with other Global South countries, which carries major implications.

First, deeper industrial cooperation. The emphasis on industrial upgrading and technology suggests China may increasingly promote joint ventures, technology transfer and productivity-linked partnerships with other Global South countries. For example, infrastructure projects under the BRI may evolve toward "smart" or high-tech clusters rather than purely traditional transport links.

Second, quality and sustainability. The 15th Five-Year Plan will pay much more attention to high-quality development. This implies Chinese international cooperation may increasingly integrate sustainability considerations. Global South partners may expect more emphasis on green growth and strategic alignment.

Third, domestic-consumption linkages. The communiqué mentioned that "positive interactions will be fostered between consumption and investment and between supply and demand" over the next five years. Global South countries might seek to become supply-chain partners for intermediate goods, processing and agribusiness, and consumption partners in terms of Chinese outbound tourism and services. Countries in Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America may benefit if they align their development strategies accordingly based on their own national conditions and development needs.

Fourth, "soft" cooperation and human development. China's modernization drive highlights the importance of human-capital development in education and health. The Global South can engage China in these fields beyond infrastructure, such as via Chinese scholarships, exchange programs and joint research. This can positively expand the scope of the South-South cooperation.

Based on these implications, Global South countries can seek some necessary technology transfer agreements, not merely financing. China's emphasis on AI, advanced manufacturing and green energy offers windows of opportunity. Besides, China's plan sits alongside global goals such as the UN 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda and regional platforms such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Partnerships among Global South countries can be linked to these frameworks to maximize coherence and benefits.

China's 14th Five-Year Plan saw meaningful progress especially in innovation, international cooperation and social development. The forthcoming 15th Five-Year Plan presents both continuity and recalibration: stronger self-reliance, smarter industry, deeper domestic demand and a global cooperation agenda aimed at high-quality development. For other Global South countries, this is not just about Chinese growth. It is a moment to engage as co-developers, not just recipients. With thoughtful strategy, other Global South countries can find various ways to work with China in the next five years to advance shared prosperity, sustainable growth and stronger South-South cooperation.

The author is an associate professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at Thammasat University, Thailand. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.