Much-needed guidance for Global South

As China enters a phase of economic maturity and seeks to transition to a growth model centered on human well-being and therefore more balanced, innovative and green development, the Recommendations of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) for National Economic and Social Development take on a dimension that transcends its borders. Its reach could directly impact the evolution of the Global South, influence the stability and prosperity of the world economy, and mark a turning point in the planet's ecological transition.

China is entering a new phase of its socialist modernization, where economic growth is ceasing to be an end in itself and becoming a means to serve human well-being. At this stage, what is decisive is not only how much is produced, but also how that wealth is distributed, sustained, and improves people's lives. The country is moving toward a socialist model, in which public goods, social justice and ecological sustainability are integrated as central pillars of development. The Chinese economy is shaping an institutional architecture aimed at guaranteeing rights, expanding capabilities and promoting well-being in a rapidly transforming society.

Domestically, China's five-year plan is a key instrument for advancing modernization focused on high-quality development. Instead of exclusively prioritizing gross domestic product growth, the new approach is expected to prioritize technological innovation, a more equitable distribution of the benefits of development, improved public services and strengthened economic resilience.

In recent years, China has shown a clear intention to reduce its reliance on infrastructure investment and exports, and promote domestic consumption, human well-being, sustainable urbanization and the strengthening of strategic sectors such as artificial intelligence, clean energy and biotechnology. By adopting this approach, the country seeks not only to maintain the stability of its own development but also to strengthen its capacity to provide global public goods and foster international cooperation.

The Chinese public investment model, which traditionally focused on infrastructure and industrial expansion, has been shifting for years toward social and environmental sectors as new sources of value. Health, elder care, vocational training, community services and inclusive digital platforms are now the drivers of development. Wellbeing is not only a social goal but also a development strategy. Faced with an aging population, China is committed to a "health economy" that encompasses everything from medicine to active aging. Creating an environment where people can care for and be cared for, without becoming impoverished or sacrificing their life plans, is key to sustaining a dynamic and productive population.

All of this points to a profound redefinition of what progress means. The Chinese model does not measure its success solely in terms of GDP but rather in terms of the real, tangible and equitable well-being distributed among the population. In other words: it's not about how much the economy grows, but how many lives grow with it and how they grow.

The international dimension of the plan holds particular significance for the Global South. China has established itself as a key partner for many developing economies, especially through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative, which channels investments in infrastructure, energy and connectivity. As China's 15th Five-Year Plan strengthens sustainability criteria in its foreign investment strategies, it could become a catalyst for sustainable development in regions with structural gaps in financing, technology and institutional capacity. Furthermore, China can play a significant role in transferring accessible technologies and generating South-South cooperation models that transcend traditional dependency dynamics. Its experience in poverty alleviation, rural digitization and inclusive industrialization can serve as an adaptive benchmark for other nations facing similar challenges.

In a global economic context marked by uncertainty, geopolitical fragmentation and the need for new sources of dynamism, China's five-year plan can serve as an anchor of stability. As China manages to maintain orderly economic growth, advance reforms that promote a more open and diversified business environment, and sustainably stimulate domestic demand, its role as an engine of the global economy will be strengthened. This will benefit both commodity-exporting countries and those seeking to attract investment, integrate value chains or access broader markets. A plan that combines selective opening, structural reforms and pragmatic cooperation can have a stabilizing effect on the international economic system.

The environmental component of China's 15th Five-Year Plan will be another decisive factor. China has already set significant climate targets for 2035, such as reducing economy-wide net greenhouse gas emissions by 7 to 10 percent from peak levels; increasing the share of non-fossil fuels to more than 30 percent in total energy consumption; sextupling the installed capacity of wind and solar power compared to 2020 levels, with a target of 3,600 gigawatts; and making new energy vehicles the mainstream in new car sales. And in this medium-term goal of 2035, the next five years will be crucial in defining the actual trajectory of these commitments. If the plan strengthens decarbonization policies, accelerates the transition to renewable energy and promotes low-carbon technological solutions, China will not only advance toward its own goals but also boost global climate ambition. Its leadership in sectors such as electric vehicles, solar energy, wind energy and battery manufacturing can help reduce the costs of these technologies globally and facilitate their adoption in emerging economies.

The main challenge lies in finding a balance between growth, human well-being and the ecological transition. None of these is easy to achieve on its own, and their simultaneous implementation requires a high degree of coordination, institutional innovation and political will. The recommendations for China's 15th Five-Year Plan are thus emerging as a significant document not only for China's future but also for the future of the global economy as a whole. How China articulates domestic priorities with international responsibilities, combines development with sustainability, and promotes more inclusive and effective cooperation will be closely watched from all corners of the world.

The content and implementation of China's next five-year plan will have far-reaching implications on issues as diverse as the energy transition, digital transformation, poverty reduction, and building a more balanced and sustainable economic order. At a time when many economies are looking for models of stability and direction, the modernization course China charts will undoubtedly be one of the most influential factors in global development toward 2030.

The author is an economist and an adviser of the Cátedra China Foundation, Spain, and the author of the book Why China Is Winning. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.