Japan's tourism sector braces for winter chill

Japan's tourism sector is bracing for a deepening chill this winter in the wake of erroneous remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

As its travel market cools, rival destinations across Asia are moving swiftly to cater to Chinese travelers who had previously planned to visit Japan.

"Since last week, inquiries for Malaysia, Singapore and winter favorites such as Phu Quoc in Vietnam and Bali in Indonesia have increased by 20 to 30 percent week-on-week," said Li Mengran, marketing manager of Beijing-based travel agency Utour.

"These destinations benefit from visa-free policies, diverse tourism resources, abundant flights and flexible tour products suited for families and smaller groups."

Thailand moved quickly to capitalize on the shifting sentiment.

On Wednesday, the Beijing office of the Tourism Authority of Thailand emphasized that Thailand "always welcomes visitors from around the world, especially Chinese friends", announcing Chinese-specific New Year promotions and safety standards.

Beyond Southeast Asia, Russia is also seeking to attract Chinese tourists.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Nov 18 that visa-free travel for Chinese citizens would be introduced "in the very near future", according to Russian media reports.

Data from Qunar, a Beijing-based online travel agency, show that the ranking of top outbound destinations has shifted significantly.

On Nov 15 and 16, South Korea overtook Japan as the most-booked outbound market, with Seoul becoming the most searched international destination by Nov 17. The surge has been helped by South Korea's visa-free trial program for Chinese tour groups of three or more, effective from Sept 29 through June 30 next year.

"From now through the end of 2025, off-peak outbound demand will remain strong," said Yang Han, a researcher at Qunar. "Japan's change has pushed travelers toward more diversified destinations, South Korea now leads, followed by China's Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions nearby, and costeffective Southeast Asian nations such as Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia."

Domestic destinations are absorbing some redirected traffic as well. Flight bookings to southern provinces from Nov 19 to Dec 31 had exceeded 4.72 million as of Nov 18, up about 13 percent year-on-year, according to data from aviation service app Umetrip.

The ongoing downturn in Chinese outbound travel to Japan accelerated after multiple Chinese ministries issued travel alerts, reminding Chinese citizens to avoid traveling to Japan in the near term. Major Chinese airlines have subsequently announced free refunds or rescheduling for Japan routes booked before Dec 31. According to a report by China Central Television on Thursday, more than 540,000 flight tickets to Japan have been canceled since Nov 15.

Wu Liyun, professor of the China Academy of Culture and Tourism at Beijing International Studies University, said travelers now increasingly prioritize safety, emotional comfort and geopolitical stability.

"People want to feel relaxed and happy when traveling. Government attitudes and how locals treat foreign visitors directly shape emotional experience," she said. When safety or political stability weakens, she added, travelers naturally turn elsewhere. "Southeast Asia, Central Asia and many regional destinations offer strong alternatives. Safety and certainty have become crucial, long-term considerations."

China is Japan's largest and highest-spending inbound visitor source. In 2024, Chinese mainland tourists accounted for 21.3 percent of all foreign tourist expenditure, according to the Japan National Tourism Organization. Combined visitors from the Chinese mainland and Hong Kong made up 30 percent of Japan's total inbound arrivals between January and September this year.

The impact is already being felt in Japan's northernmost prefecture. Hokkaido Governor Naomichi Suzuki said at a news conference on Friday that cancellations have appeared across local hotels and flight tickets. "As the winter travel season approaches, the concerns continue to grow."

Sapporo Stream Hotel in Hokkaido, which normally receives around 3,000 Chinese guests each month, has recorded 70 cancellations since the travel alert. Tour operators in Nagoya and Tokyo report similar losses. One Nagoya-based charter operator said all December bookings from Chinese groups had been canceled. A Tokyo river cruise company that usually serves up to 2,000 Chinese tourists annually saw about 240 people cancel in recent days.

Japan's Nomura Research Institute estimated that the decline in Chinese tourists could reduce Japan's GDP by 0.36 percent.

Tourism is Japan's second-largest source of foreign exchange, after vehicle exports, Wu of the China Academy of Culture and Tourism added.

"If Chinese travelers significantly reduce or halt travel to Japan, that consumption disappears," she said. "This will have a huge impact on Japan's foreign-exchange revenue, GDP growth and employment across accommodation, dining, retail and entertainment."