Propositions of substance

China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) will outline the country's economic and social development strategy for the next five years. Central to this plan will be the development of new quality productive forces, a concept introduced by President Xi Jinping to describe productivity gains achieved by integrating advanced technologies into traditional industries. Key priorities include technological innovation, upgrading traditional industries, strengthening domestic demand through the dual-circulation model — a development paradigm that takes the domestic market as the mainstay while allowing domestic and international markets to reinforce each other, promoting green transformation and increasing investment in social welfare systems.

Green transformation remains a core pillar, aiming to accelerate decarbonization and establish China as a global leader in renewable energy and green technologies. This supports the country's long-term goal of building an ecological civilization. Reliable and affordable energy underpins broader industrial modernization.

With China contributing about one-third of global economic growth, these domestic priorities have clear global implications. For countries worldwide, understanding the priorities proposed for the 15th Five-Year Plan is critical, as they will affect global supply chains, trade flows, and technological leadership. China views the trade conflict between China and the United States as part of a broader structural shift from a US-centric global system to a multipolar order, prompting greater emphasis on technological self-reliance, diversified partnerships and long-term economic security. Geopolitical tensions further accelerate China's focus on innovation, expanding export markets and deepening cooperation with regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East. China continues to pursue partnerships with other Global South countries, supporting multilateral trade and investment systems while offering alternative development models.

As China strengthens its technological self-sufficiency, Chinese enterprises will look to expand abroad, bringing capital, supply chains, digital payment systems, and alternative industrial development models, particularly to countries of the Global South.

Over the next five years, and beyond, China will continue to strengthen partnerships with countries of the Global South, supporting multilateral trade and investment systems while offering an alternative development model. China's 15th Five-Year Plan therefore will also provide a strategic reference for high-quality cooperation, sustainable growth and shared development in Africa.

On Nov 24, Ethiopia and China celebrated the 55th anniversary of the establishment of the diplomatic relations. This milestone reflects a long-standing partnership that has strengthened over the past seven years. Bilateral relations have expanded politically, economically and culturally, while multilateral engagement, through the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and BRICS, has enhanced Ethiopia's global influence and South-South cooperation.

The priorities put forward in the Recommendations of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development — green development, technological innovation, industrial modernization and global engagement — align closely with Ethiopia's 10 Years Perspective Development Plan (2021-30). And 10 partnership actions announced at the FOCAC Summit in Beijing in 2024 complement Ethiopia's transformation in the form of industrial parks, energy projects, digital infrastructure and green growth initiatives. China and Ethiopia are coordinating on global issues such as governance reform, climate change, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, and China is supporting Ethiopia's accession to the World Trade Organization. Meanwhile, through initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative, Global Security Initiative and Global Governance Initiative, the two countries are jointly promoting inclusive growth, industrialization and regional integration across Africa and beyond.

China's contributions to Ethiopia's hard and soft infrastructure are tangible. The Belt and Road projects, including the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway, Addis Ababa Light Rail Transit, and power and transport infrastructure, have improved regional integration, mobility and public services. Ongoing projects such as the new capital airport for Addis Ababa, renewable energy facilities and green industrial parks further position Ethiopia as a regional hub.

Chinese enterprises have also created significant employment. The Eastern Industrial Zone employs 24,000 local workers; the Adama wind power project employs 2,100 workers; and the Ethiopian Airlines Headquarters project has hired over 500 employees. Skills development programs, including the Chinese language workshops, Banmo Academy and the Ethio-Djibouti Railway project, which trained over 3,000 professionals, address local human capital gaps. Collaboration in Ethiopia's electric vehicle sector and telecom expansion from 2G to 5G, along with digital platforms and AI applications, demonstrate how China's technology and green priorities are helping the African country realize its development goals.

Agriculture has also been put forward as a core pillar of the recommendations for the 15th Five-Year Plan. China's 100 percent zero-tariff access has already increased Ethiopia's exports of coffee, sesame and legumes, benefiting millions of smallholder farmers. Ethiopian coffee, in particular, has grown at 27 percent annually in the Chinese market. With much uncultivated land, Ethiopia offers significant potential for expanding cultivation, while Chinese investments in coffee production, processing and value chains strengthen farm-to-market integration.

Cultural and educational cooperation complements the economic engagement. Confucius Institutes, the Luban Workshop and the China-Ethiopia Film and TV Festival (2024) enhance people-to-people ties. The year 2026 will be celebrated as the China-Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges, with events promoting heritage, arts and mutual understanding. Ethiopia is also the top African recipient of Chinese scholarships, and Amharic language programs at Beijing Foreign Studies University, along with two Confucius Institutes, strengthen educational collaboration.

During Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's 2023 visit to Beijing, Ethiopia and China elevated their relationship to an "all-weather strategic partnership", establishing a long-term framework covering trade, industrial development, technology and sustainable development. Both countries, as founding members of the United Nations, are committed to upholding multilateralism and a fair global order. China continues to support Ethiopia and the African Union in regional integration, industrialization and modernization.

Overall, global trends indicate a future in which dual economic orders operate side by side. While competition will persist, increasing interdependence through trade, investment, and technology will continue to link the two systems. Western governments are gradually recognizing that isolating or containing China is no longer feasible, and that selective cooperation may be the only practical path forward. This is the direction in which the world is moving. The 15th Five-Year Plan will bring greater coexistence, competition and collaboration across the globe.

The author is a communication and publication consultant at the Ethiopian Policy Studies Institute. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily. 

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.