AI seen boosting Asian GDP

The artificial intelligence boom is expected to bolster growth in the Asia-Pacific, with robust global demand for computer chips driving the region's export sector, according to Nomura's latest forecast.

The Japanese investment bank's Asia Macro Outlook 2026 report, published on Monday, forecast Asian GDP to expand by 3.7 percent by the end of 2025, and by 3.6 percent in 2026.

"I would say that 2026 is going to be shining a brighter light on Asia," Rob Subbaraman, Nomura's head of global macro research, said in a press briefing in Hong Kong on Monday.

Subbaraman said he sees "greater global focus on diversification of investments globally", with Asia's strong fundamentals to attract more capital inflows.

However, he noted that 2026 is also "a year of differentiation" for the region.

"Don't paint Asia with the same brush because we think there are a lot of differences across Asia," Subbaraman said.

Sonal Varma, Nomura's chief economist for India and Asia excluding Japan, said technology exports may accelerate in 2026, mainly driven by the continued spending of cloud service providers.

"So we think the AI demand will remain quite strong," Varma said, adding that this will be "fairly positive" for the big tech exporters in the region.

According to Nomura's macro outlook report, the "strong momentum" of Asian technology exports will be sustained through 2026 amid strong AI demand and higher memory prices. Higher United States tariffs, however, would weigh on non-tech exports.

Nomura forecasted that Malaysia, Singapore, and South Korea will "outperform" in 2026 as these three countries are tech exporters who stand to benefit most from the AI boom.

The outlook is likewise sanguine for Japan, where a 21.3 trillion yen ($137.33 billion) stimulus package unveiled in November is expected to boost consumer spending.

Nomura expects the US and India to reach a trade deal soon, which supports its growth outlook for India in 2026.

Euben Paracuelles, Nomura's chief economist for Southeast Asia, said there's a "very bifurcated outlook" for Southeast Asian countries.

"We are pretty bullish on the growth outlook in Malaysia and Singapore. So we think their (growth) is going to exceed expectations," Paracuelles said.

He said that the GDP outlook for Indonesia, Philippines, and Thailand "will disappoint and will disappoint even more if you compare it with potential growth and what they are capable of growing with existing capacity and wealth".

Paracuelles said AI-related demand, combined with structural reforms, will continue to benefit Singapore and Malaysia, allowing them to attract more FDI.

He said major projects such as the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone are also boosting construction activity and investment spending in these two neighboring countries.

Political uncertainty in Thailand and the Philippines will continue to drag growth, Paracuelles said, adding that the ongoing flood control projects corruption scandal in the Philippines has reduced fiscal spending and pressured its GDP growth outlook.

He said that as a regional group, ASEAN is trying to mitigate some of the impact of global economic uncertainty by members trading more with each other.

"But we're very skeptical about the ability of the region to do that and promote intra-regional trade. Their track record is not very good, and they still have a lot of … barriers that they have yet to address," Paracuelles said.