ADB country director sees bright outlook for China's high-quality growth amid reforms

The prospects for China's high-quality development are inspiring, with the country remaining unwavering in its commitment to reforms, said Asif S. Cheema, the Asian Development Bank's country director for China.

"If we look at what we saw in the directives in the fourth plenum for the 15th Five-Year Plan, the government wants to continue its focus on high-quality development in terms of investing in people, in terms of growing the domestic consumption, by providing more resources for the social safety net, for social protection. All these are very positive steps in the right direction," said Cheema in a recent interview with China Daily.

"China already has everything that's needed — be it the commitment from the government, the institutional capacity, as well as a very strong (economic) foundation. As long as it continues toward its commitment to reforms, the signs are very encouraging," he said.

China's exports denominated in US dollars, grew by 5.4 percent year-on-year to $3.41 trillion in the first 11 months of 2025, according to the General Administration of Customs.

It was encouraging to see a solid performance in the export sector, especially in terms of high-quality exports. That reflects a very strong foundation that China has built over the years, including a solid manufacturing base, continued investments in R&D, as well as supportive policies from the government for innovation and digitalization, said Cheema.

He emphasized that in terms of green exports, which includes electric vehicles, batteries and solar, China's exports grew by 20 percent in the first 11 months of 2025. Similarly, in terms of high-tech sectors including biotech, semiconductors and high-tech manufacturing, China's exports increased by 7 percent.

Exports of high-quality products grew faster than overall exports, signaling that the transformation of the country's growth model is already showing results, he said.

In China's proposals for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), policymakers stressed the need to take coordinated steps to expand domestic demand and deepen supply-side structural reforms.

"It is a very positive sign that China is encouraging demand-side reforms, which will further help in terms of supporting domestic consumption and building the social safety net," said Cheema.

With increased urban incomes and the need for modern services, opportunities abound for foreign companies in this very large and dynamic market, he explained, identifying three major opportunities.

First, given China's focus on low-carbon growth, green energy and the green sector is creating a lot of opportunities — be it electric mobility, green buildings, or circular economy solutions. This sector requires global expertise, global technologies and investments, offering foreign companies a crucial role to play, he said.

Similarly, China's growing services sector presents opportunities in education, healthcare, elderly care and tourism. All these would require more investments, and quite a lot of demand is coming in due to demographic shifts, as well as rising income capacity.

Finally, as the government shifts toward high-quality growth, it also needs to upgrade its manufacturing base, which will lead to more high-quality high-tech manufacturing, AI driven solutions and smart logistics. All these would require more global solutions coming in, he said.

"All in all, I can see that there are plenty of opportunities for foreign companies (in China), provided they bring in new technologies, global best practices, and a long-term commitment toward China," he said.

ADB revised up the China's 2025 growth forecast from 4.7 percent to 4.8 percent, citing stronger-than-expected GDP growth in the first three quarters and supportive government policies, according to the December edition of the bank's flagship economic report.