Braced for impact

Despite the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, global climate governance is forging ahead

The current foreign policy of the United States, particularly after its withdrawal from the Paris Agreement for a second time, has significantly impacted the international order, including global climate governance. The rules and systems established by the international community after World War II are undergoing a turbulent restructuring process, casting uncertainty over the future of global climate governance. At the 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, in November, 2025, the US federal government did not send any representatives — the first such absence since the inaugural UN climate conference in 1995.

The US retreat from global climate governance means more fragmented climate efforts in a less "global" governance structure where leadership is divorced from historical responsibilities. According to the Carbon Brief, the US has emitted over 509 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the period from 1850 to 2021, accounting for around 20 percent of the global total — the highest in the world. Its cumulative emissions per population rank second only to Canada. The country that should be playing a crucial and positive role in climate governance has completely abrogated its responsibilities and is even treating the climate crisis as a problem to be avoided in the latest National Security Strategy of 2025. Meanwhile, the US has imposed tariffs — particularly on solar panels, wind turbine components and battery storage systems — disrupting global supply chains for these green goods and raising costs for clean energy technologies worldwide. Its stances and actions on climate change are eroding the trust and confidence essential for global cooperation on climate actions.

But while global climate governance without the US is undoubtedly challenging, hope and expectation remain. China and other countries of the Global South are mobilizing a collective response.

Notably, China's climate cooperation with other Global South countries represents a transformative, action-oriented model of cooperation. Through initiatives such as the Initiative for Belt and Road Partnership on Green Development and the China South-South Climate Cooperation Fund, Chinese companies have pledged over $227 billion in the decade from 2011 to 2021 across green manufacturing projects, according to the latest estimate from Johns Hopkins University. This surge of overseas green manufacturing investment is unprecedented. The ambition also scales up with commitment. Investments surged beginning in 2022, with 387 projects — over 80 percent of the total — launched since that year. A record 165 projects were announced in 2024 alone. Since 2022, Chinese companies have committed over $210 billion, accounting for approximately 88 percent of the total disclosed capital. In each year since 2022, the pledged investment has exceeded the total amount committed over the entire previous decade. Meanwhile, China's domestic energy transition is creating global public goods, driving down costs and accelerating renewable adoption worldwide. The nation's pursuit of its dual carbon goals has yielded industrial and ecological benefits with significant international spillover effects. By building the world's largest renewable energy system and clean tech supply chain, China now supplies the majority of the world's key renewable components. It provides over 80 percent of the world's photovoltaic modules and 70 percent of wind power equipment, contributing to cost reductions of more than 60 percent for wind power and over 80 percent for photovoltaic projects in the past decade. This manufacturing scale has been instrumental in reducing global costs for wind and solar power.

Furthermore, China accounts for one-fourth of the world's new green area expansion. In 2024, non-fossil fuels constituted some 20 percent of China's primary energy consumption, and the country is already exceeding its 2030 targets for installed wind and solar capacity and forest stock, showcasing a domestic transformation that enables global decarbonization.

This dual-path approach integrates domestic action with international partnership, offering climate governance response as a vector for shared development rather than a geopolitical arena. China's strategy consciously links its internal ecological modernization with collaborative Global South engagement. Its active engagement on climate issues does not aim to replace any country but stems from a firm commitment to building a shared future for humanity. This vision sees climate action as foundational to economic growth and resilience, offering an alternative paradigm focused on capacity-building, technology transfer and infrastructure-led development among the countries of the Global South.

Global climate governance is a marathon spanning generations, not a sprint for instant gratification. The temporary absence of a single country may slow progress but it cannot alter its course. When future generations look back on this era, they may remember a US that chose to step away, but they will also honor the nations and people who upheld their commitments amid challenges and took responsibility in the face of adversity. Global climate governance without the US continues to plow a hopeful path — not out of blind optimism, but from steadfast belief in humanity's collective rationality and the resilience of civilization.

The author is an assistant researcher at the Institute of American Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.

The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.